Economic Indicator Methodology and Sources

Overview

The Economic Indicators contain a broad group of measures that can be used to assess the economic performance and competitiveness of the different geographic areas of the state.  Rather than the traditional leading, coincident, and lagging classification systems, the Economic Indicators are grouped under the following 8 broad categories representing how the factors contained in the Indicators are experienced in daily life:

The Key Indicators in the dashboard above the detailed list of Indicators cover key measures providing a quick snapshot of each of the geographic regions covered in this tool. Additional detail is provided through the full list of Indicators in each category.

Each Indicator is provided under one or more values:

  • Current Value:  the reported or estimated value for the Indicator.  For Indicators measured in dollars, the Current Value is the nominal (current year) value.  The Current Value is the value generally reported in the media for these Indicators, but is not adjusted for inflation or population growth. 
  • Real Value:  the deflated value for the Indicator in constant 2007 dollars.  All real values are calculated from the US CPI—All Urban Consumers series.  The Real Value nets out the effects of inflation, and shows the real monetary value growth in each of the applicable Indicators. 
  • Per Capita Current Value:  the current value divided by population.  Where the Indicator data is reported in per capita terms, the official data is shown.  For others, the per capita values are estimated using the population estimates contained in the Data Tool.  Note that the per capita base varies by individual Indicator and is given in one of three ways:  per capita (current value per person), per thousand (current value per 1,000 population), and per hundred thousand (current value per 100,000 population).  The Per Capita Current Value nets out the effects of population growth. 
  • Per Capita Real Value:  the real value divided by estimated population, as above.  The Per Capita Real Value nets of the effects of both inflation and population growth, and shows the underlying economic changes within the geographic area, especially when compared to the US or California base per capita value.

Most Indicators are also expressed as an Index Value, with each Index Value formed by using the 2007 value as the base.  The Index Values provide a quick tool to compare individual geographic areas across all Indicators, and all geographic areas across individual Indicators:

  • Looking at a single geographic area (e.g., a county or an Assembly District), ranking all Index Values for the same date shows the Indicators in which the area performed better or worse compared to economic conditions in 2007.
  • Looking at a single Indicator (e.g., unemployment rate), ranking all geographic areas by a single date identifies which areas performed better or worse compared to economic conditions in 2007.

For some Indicators, the columns immediately to the right of the Indicator value are used to show racial/ethnic or other demographic break-downs, as is the case for Labor Force Participation Rate and the Workforce Preparation Indicators.

For most Indicators, the final eight columns show the change in the Indicator Values (generally as the percentage change from the previous period) and Index Values (generally as the absolute change from the previous period).  Note that the previous period used to calculate these changes varies by Indicator, with monthly and quarterly data that is not seasonally adjusted generally compared to the same period in the previous year, and other data generally compared to the previous period in the same year.  The comparison base is noted in the detailed descriptions of each Indicator.

Economic Health

Private Sector Wage & Salary Jobs

The data for US and California is from the monthly, not seasonally adjusted number of private wage and salary jobs from the Current Employment Statistics data from California Employment Development Department and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Similar to the QCEW data in the Data Tool, this data series measures the number of private jobs within a geographic area.  The data is not fully comparable to the QCEW data, and is instead based on a monthly survey rather than the full census accounting of the QCEW.  The CES survey data, however, is more current and is provided monthly, giving a more up to date view of the number of jobs being created and lost in an area’s economy. 

This data is job based, and like the QCEW data, accounts for the number of wage and salary jobs within a geographic area.  The data is establishment based, meaning it counts the number of wage and salary jobs rather than the number of people employed.  An individual worker may hold more than one job, but each job is counted separately in the data base.  Similarly, the jobs may be full or part time, but each one is treated equally for the purposes of counting employment. 

Also like the QCEW, this series does not incorporate certain categories of jobs, primarily proprietors, self-employed in an unincorporated business or practice, and unpaid family members.

Because EDD currently does not provide CES data for all counties, data for this Indicator is instead taken from the QCEW for counties, regions, and legislative districts.  The county/region data is from Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW) developed through a joint program between the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the California Employment Development Department.  Legislative district data was obtained through a contract with EDD, as described under the Data Tool.

The number of jobs is shown as both the number of private wage and salary jobs per thousand population and as the total number of jobs.

In order to net out seasonal factors, the change in this Indicator is calculated by comparing the same period in the prior year.  For the US and California, the change in the indicator value (per 1000 population and total) is calculated as the percentage change from the same month in the previous year (same quarter in the previous year for legislative districts).  For counties, regions, and legislative districts, the changes are calculated from the same quarter in the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value (per 1000 population and total) is calculated as the absolute change from the same month in the previous year (same quarter in the previous year for legislative districts).

Change in Private Sector Wage & Salary Jobs

The Indicator shows the change in total Private Wage and Salary Jobs.  For the US and California, the change is calculated from the previous month in the same year.  For counties, regions, and legislative districts, the change is calculated from the previous quarter in the same year.

Note that because the source data is from the not seasonally adjusted data, the change in jobs shown in some months is dominated by seasonal factors.  This situation is particularly the case for holiday retail positions in December (hiring) and January (layoffs).

The data for US and California is from the monthly, not seasonally adjusted number of private wage and salary jobs from the Current Employment Statistics data from California Employment Development Department and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Because EDD currently does not provide CES data for all counties, data for this Indicator is instead taken from the QCEW for counties, regions, and legislative districts.  The county/region data is from Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW) developed through a joint program between the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the California Employment Development Department.  Legislative district data was obtained through a contract with EDD, as described under the Data Tool.

Taxable Sales

The data shows the quarterly sales of taxable goods and services in the state.  This series reflects changes in the level of retail trade and covered service (primarily personal service) businesses.  However, this indicator no longer provides a full indication of commercial activity as not all sales are treated as taxable in the state.  Items not included in taxable sales include many food items including groceries, hot bakery items, candy, and bottled water; food products sold through vending machines; animal life, feed, seeds, plants, and fertilizer; sales to the US government; prescription medicine and certain medical devices; purchases with food stamps; and a range of other products and services.  General consumption patterns have also changed, with a growing share of total consumer and business purchases being made for non-taxable services and goods.  The full list of covered and non-taxable items is covered in Board of Equalization publications.

Another factor to consider in the use of this indicator is the change in taxable items over time.  Individual goods and services have been added or removed from taxable status through legislation.  In the case of the smaller counties, the opening of major auto or other retail centers also can have a significant effect on short term changes in the level of sales and the county indices.

The data series is taken from the Board of Equalization quarterly reports on Taxable Sales.  Data is reported quarterly for both the state and counties, with a one year lag.

To account for seasonal factors, the change in the indicator value (real and current and total and per capita values) is calculated as the percentage change from the same quarter in the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value (real and current and total and per capita values) is calculated as the absolute change from the same quarter in the previous year.

Vehicle Registration

The Indicator shows number of fee paid vehicle registrations for autos, defined as a passenger vehicle used for the transportation of persons.  Data is taken from annual reports prepared by California Department of Motor Vehicles.  Additional data is available from DMV on commercial vehicles by county along with other vehicles covered by fee-paid registration.  The Indicators are shown both as total registrations and number of registrations per 1000 population.

The change in the indicator value (per 1000 population and total) is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value (per 1000 population and total) is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year.

Total Civilian Employment

Total Civilian Employment is the flip side of the number of jobs, covering the number of persons who are employed, including employed in full and part time positions, business owners, and non-wage family members working in a family business.  This Indicator covers the individuals within each geographic area.  Data source is Employment Development Department and Bureau of Labor Statistics, as described more fully under the Data Tool.  Legislative Districts are estimated, as described more fully under the Data Tool.

The number of jobs is shown as both the number of employed per thousand population (current value) and as total number of employed.

In order to account for seasonal factors, the change in the indicator value (per 1000 population and total employment) is calculated as the percentage change from the same month in the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value (per 1000 population and total employment) is calculated as the absolute change from the same month in the previous year.

Unemployment Rate

Unemployment rate is the not seasonally adjusted unemployment for civilian labor force, age 16 and over.  Data source for US, California, counties, and regions is Employment Development Department and Bureau of Labor Statistics, as described more fully under the Data Tool.  Legislative Districts are estimated, as described more fully under the Data Tool.

The unemployment rate is shown as the % of civilian labor force, age 16 and over.

In order to account for seasonal factors, the change in the indicator value is calculated as the absolute change from the same month in the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value is calculated as the absolute change from the same month in the previous year.

Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

Data for California covers the number of initial Unemployment Insurance Claims only for new claims and additional claims.  The state data only covers the regular UI program and does not cover any federal/military claims and extensions.

Data for the counties and regions covers the number of initial Unemployment Insurance Claims including new claims, additional claims, and transitional claims.  The data covers both the regular program plus federal extended benefits.  The county data only includes those persons living within the county.  It does not include claimants residing outside California and invalid addresses where a county cannot be determined.  Data source is California Employment Development Department

Data for all geographic regions is not seasonally adjusted. 

The number of initial claims is shown as both a monthly total and as the number of initial claims per thousand population.

The change in the indicator value (total and per 1000 population) is calculated as the percentage change from the previous month.  The change in the base 2007 index value (total and per 1000 population) is calculated as the absolute change from the previous month.

Gross Domestic Product

The state Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity.  GDP is defined as the sum of what consumers, businesses, and government spend on final goods and services, plus investment and net foreign trade.

Data for the US and California is provided quarterly (seasonally adjusted) by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by State beginning in 2005.  Prior data is available only annually for California.  Annual data is also available on an MSA level, but is not reported separately by county. 

Real GDP values are those reported by BEA, expressed as chained 2009 dollars. 

The change in the indicator value (real and current and total and per capita values) is calculated as the percentage change from the same quarter in the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value (real and current and total and per capita values) is calculated as the absolute change from the same quarter in the previous year.  

Coincident Index

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia produces a monthly coincident index for all 50 states, derived from 4 economic variables:  nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average).  This index is designed to track the trend in the growth of GDP for each state, and provides a more current indication of GDP growth than the annual data provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous month.  The change in the base 2007 index value is calculated as the absolute change from the previous month.

International GDP Rank

As a measure of international competitiveness, the International GDP Rank shows how the California economy would compare to other nations if it was a separate country.

The data is taken from California Department of Finance, Top Countries Ranked by Its Gross Domestic Product California’s World Ranking.  The Finance data in turn comes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP data for the US and California, compared to similar data from the World Bank and in earlier years from data maintained by The Economist

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the change in rank value from the previous year. 

Total Farm Output

Annual value of agricultural sector production for US and California covers the value of crop production, livestock production, farm services, commodity insurance payments, net cash rent received by operator landlords, and forest products sold.  Data for both California and US are from US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Farm Income and Wealth Statistics

The change in the indicator value (real and current and total and per capita values) is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value (real and current and total and per capita values) is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year.  

Crude Oil Production

Data is from the US Energy Information Administration Crude Oil Production shown as barrels per day.  Current year data is shown as a YTD average.  The US data is for total US production.  California data is for California field production only.  In addition to the field production shown for California, EIA data shows there are an additional 53,000 barrels per day being produced in the federal Outer Continental Shelf off California.

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year.

Natural Gas Production

Data is from the US Energy Information Administration Natural Gas Gross Withdrawals and Production, shown as average million cubic feet per month.  Current year data is shown as a YTD average.  The US data is for total US production.  California data includes offshore production in state and federal waters.

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year.

New Residential Building Permits:  Cost

The Indicator shows the value of building permits issued for new single family and multi-family units.  For the US, data is from the US Census Bureau derived from monthly surveys of permitting agencies throughout the US.  The data used in the indicators is for the estimates with imputation, due to the fact that the Census surveys do not canvass all permitting agencies every month.  Data for California, counties, and regions is from California Homebuilding Foundation.  The CHF data is derived from a comprehensive monthly survey of local building departments.

US data is from the Census Bureau, Units and Valuation.  The California, county, and regional data was obtained from CHF through a subscription. 

The US data is provided to show a baseline comparison, but is not fully comparable to the more detailed CHF data.  The US data is sample-based and covers only privately-built units.  The CHF data is more comprehensive and covers all units.  As an indication of the scale of these differences, the comparable survey data developed by the Census for California is on average 95% of the CHF values.

The change in the indicator value (total and per capita real and current values) is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value (total and per capita real and current values) is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year. 

Residential Alteration Permits:  Cost

The Indicator shows the value of building permits issued for residential alterations.  As such, the data covers only alterations done under permit rather than all alteration construction activity in the state.  Data for California, counties, and regions is from California Homebuilding Foundation.  The CHF data is derived from a comprehensive monthly survey of local building departments.  No comparable US data is available.

The change in the indicator value (total and per capita real and current values) is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value (total and per capita real and current values) is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year. 

Non-Residential Permits:  Cost

The Indicator shows the value of building permits issued for non-residential construction, consisting of hotels and motels, non-housekeeping shelter, recreational, churches, industrial, parking garages, service stations, hospitals, offices, public works, schools/education, retail, other non-residential buildings, structures other than buildings, non-residential alterations, and residential garages.  Data for California, counties, and regions is from California Homebuilding Foundation.  The CHF data is derived from a comprehensive monthly survey of local building departments.  No comparable US data is available.

The change in the indicator value (total and per capita real and current values) is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value (total and per capita real and current values) is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year. 

Manufacturing Employment

The data for US and California is from the monthly, not seasonally adjusted number of private sector manufacturing wage and salary jobs from the Current Employment Statistics data from California Employment Development Department and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Similar to the QCEW data in the Data Tool, this data series measures the number of manufacturing jobs within a geographic area.  The data is not fully comparable to the QCEW data, and is instead based on a monthly survey rather than the full census accounting of the QCEW.  The CES survey data, however, is more current and is provided monthly, giving a more up to date view of the number of jobs being created and lost in an area’s economy.

This data is job based, and like the QCEW data, accounts for the number of wage and salary jobs within a geographic area.  The data is establishment based, meaning it counts the number of wage and salary jobs rather than the number of people employed.  An individual worker may hold more than one job, but each job is counted separately in the data base.  Similarly, the jobs may be full or part time, but each one is treated equally for the purposes of counting employment.

Also like the QCEW, this series does not incorporate certain categories of jobs, primarily proprietors, self-employed in an unincorporated business or practice, and unpaid family members.

Because EDD currently does not provide CES data for all counties, data for this Indicator is instead taken from the QCEW for counties, regions, and legislative districts.  The county/region data is from Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW) developed through a joint program between the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the California Employment Development Department.  Legislative district data was obtained through a contract with EDD.

The number of jobs is shown as both a total and as the number of private wage and salary jobs per thousand population.  During to nondisclosure issues, indices for Alpine and Modoc Counties are not calculated.

To account for seasonal factors, changes in this Indicator as calculated by comparing the same period in the previous year.  For the US, California, counties, and regions, the change in the indicator value (total and per 1000 population) is calculated as the percentage change from the same month in the previous year (same quarter in the previous year for legislative districts).  The change in the base 2007 index value (total and per 1000 population) is calculated as the absolute change from the same month in the previous year (same quarter in the previous year for legislative districts).

Imports through California Ports

The indicator data shows total imports of goods through California ports.  Not all of this trade activity originates within California, as the state ports serve as the primary gateway for trade between the US and the Pacific Rim countries.  However, this indicator is a reflection of the considerable port and trade related employment in California in transportation, warehousing, and logistics, one of the key higher-paying blue collar sources of jobs.

Data is from Foreign Trade Division of the US Census Bureau.  The comparative US trade in goods series is US Trade in Goods--Census Basis.

To account for seasonal factors, the change in the indicator value (real and current and total and per capita values) is calculated as the percentage change from the same quarter in the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value (real and current and total and per capita values) is calculated as the absolute change from the same quarter in the previous year.

Exports through California Ports

The indicator data shows total exports of goods through California ports.  Not all of this trade activity originates within California, as the state ports serve as the primary gateway for trade between the US and the Pacific Rim countries.  However, this indicator is a reflection of the considerable port and trade related employment in California in transportation, warehousing, and logistics, one of the key higher-paying blue collar sources of jobs.

Data is from Foreign Trade Division of the US Census Bureau.  The comparative US trade in goods series is US Trade in Goods--Census Basis.

To account for seasonal factors, the change in the indicator value (real and current and total and per capita values) is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value (real and current and total and per capita values) is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year.

Patents Issued

As an indicator of the strength of California’s high tech sectors including Silicon Valley and Biotech Bay, the data shows the number of US Utility Patents (inventions) issued by origin, for the US as whole, California, and for patents filed by applicants in foreign countries.  Data source is US Patent and Trademark Office, Extended Year Set--Patents by Country, State, and Year, Utility Patents.

The patent data is shown by the total number issued by origin each year, and by the number of patents per 1 million population. 

The change in indicator value (total and per 1 million population) is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value (total and per 1 million population) is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year.

Cost of Living Indicators

Average Annual Wage

Wage data is taken from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, as the average annual wage for all employment.  Data is from California Employment Department for the state, regions, and counties, as described under the Data Tool.  Data for the legislative districts was obtained through a contract with EDD, as described under the Data Tool.

The change in the indicator value (real and current values) is calculated as the percentage change from the same quarter in the previous year. The change in the index (real and current values) is calculated as the absolute change from the same quarter in the previous year. The same quarter-different year calculation is used to net out any seasonal variation in the value of this indicator.

The QCEW data is generally available with a 6-month lag.  More current monthly data is available from US Bureau of Labor Statistics from the Current Employment Survey.  However, this data is only presented for the state and SMSAs and is not available by county and legislative district.

In addition to the QCEW data, EDD also maintains quarterly data on occupational wages beginning with 2001.  The data is broken down by detailed occupation and is available for the state, MSAs, and selected regions. 

Home Price +/- US Average

Average home price is shown as an index calculated from the ratio of the quarterly average home price to the quarterly average US home price. This index shows the relative cost of California homes (as percent above (+) or below (-) the US average) compared to the US average. For example, an Index number of 24.0 indicates that California homes on average were 24% higher than the US average during the specified period. An Index number of -13.2 shows that on average the California homes were 13.2% lower than the US average.

The second value for counties, regions, and legislative districts shows the average home price as an index calculated from the ratio of the quarterly average home price in the subject area to the quarterly average California home price.  This index shows the relative cost of homes by area (as percent above (+) or below (-) the California average) compared to the California average for that quarter. 

Data for the US is from the US Census Bureau.  Data for California, counties, regions, and legislative districts is through a subscription to the DQNews data base.  Legislative Districts are estimated using zip code data from DQNews.  The data covers all new and existing, attached and detached single family home sales

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the absolute change (percentage points) from the previous quarter.   

CPI

Consumer Price Index (CPI) is shown for both US and California.  The US series is CPI-U (All Urban Consumers), not seasonally adjusted, current base from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The California series is calculated by the California Department of Finance based on the published CPIs for the San Francisco and Los Angeles CMSAs.  Data source is the Department of Finance, Monthly (All Items) from 1965.  Beginning January 2007, both the US and CA CPIs are reported to the third decimal.  Data in the Indicators, however, is rounded to the first decimal.  Beginning in 1998, Department of Finance calculates the CA CPI every other month.  The Indicators data for the other months in these years is estimated through straight-line interpolation as is done in the Finance calculations.

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous month.  The change in the base 2007 index value is calculated as the absolute change from the previous month. 

Food Price Index

The relative cost of food is shown through the Food expenditure component of the consumer price index for the US and California.  This index shows the overall increase in Food costs using a base year of 1982-84.  For example, a 3% increase in the Food index value indicates a 3% increase in the cost of food during the subject period.  As another example, a Food Index of 238 for the US and 243 for California indicates that since the base year period, food costs in the US have increased 138% over the base year prices, while food costs in California have increased further at 143% over base year prices.

The US series is CPI-U (All Urban Consumers), not seasonally adjusted, current base.  The California series is calculated using the same formula used by California Department of Finance to calculate the California CPI from the published CPIs for the San Francisco and Los Angles CMSAs.  Data source is the Department of Finance

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous month.  The change in the base 2007 index value is calculated as the absolute change from the previous month. 

Energy Cost

Gasoline per Gallon

Gasoline prices are shown as dollars per gallon (including taxes) for Regular Gasoline.  Data for the US and California is from the EIA Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices.  The data is shown as monthly averages as of the middle of each month.  Data for counties, regions, and legislative districts is derived from zip code data obtained from GasBuddy.com.  This data shows the average price per zip code along with the number of reporting stations as of the beginning of each month.  The Indicator data is estimated from a weighted average of the zip code data.

GasBuddy's gasoline price data is a collection of prices reported by its users via the GasBuddy website, the GasBuddy mobile apps, credit card (fleet card) transactions, and directly from gas stations. Since the prices on GasBuddy.com are input by individual users, no guarantees are made in regard to the accuracy of the inputted price, station name, station location, or other user dependent variables. GasBuddy.com, GasPriceData.com and/or GasBuddy/OpenStore LL. shall have the right to, but not the obligation, to monitor, change, or remove any of the site content or information without notice at any time.  GasBuddy.com, GasPriceData.com and/or GasBuddy/OpenStore LLC shall not be held liable, regardless of the cause or duration, for any errors, inaccuracies, omissions, untimeliness, unauthenticated information, or other defects in the information or content within the website or associated tools (e.g., GasBuddy Price Tool).

The change in the indicator value (real and current values) is calculated as the percentage change from the previous month. The change in the base 2007 index value (real and current values) is calculated as the absolute change from the previous month.

Diesel per Gallon

Diesel prices are shown as dollars per gallon (including taxes) for Diesel.  Data for the US and California is from the EIA Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices.  The data is shown as monthly averages as of the middle of each month.  Data for counties, regions, and legislative districts is derived from zip code data obtained from GasBuddy.com.  This data shows the average price per zip code along with the number of reporting stations as of the beginning of each month.  The Indicator data is estimated from a weighted average of the zip code data.

GasBuddy's diesel price data is a collection of prices reported by its users via the GasBuddy website, the GasBuddy mobile apps, credit card (fleet card) transactions, and directly from gas stations. Since the prices on GasBuddy.com are input by individual users, no guarantees are made in regard to the accuracy of the inputted price, station name, station location, or other user dependent variables. GasBuddy.com, GasPriceData.com and/or GasBuddy/OpenStore LL. shall have the right to, but not the obligation, to monitor, change, or remove any of the site content or information without notice at any time.  GasBuddy.com, GasPriceData.com and/or GasBuddy/OpenStore LLC shall not be held liable, regardless of the cause or duration, for any errors, inaccuracies, omissions, untimeliness, unauthenticated information, or other defects in the information or content within the website or associated tools (e.g., GasBuddy Price Tool).

The change in the indicator value (real and current values) is calculated as the percentage change from the previous month. The change in the base 2007 index value (real and current values) is calculated as the absolute change from the previous month.

Electricity Price:  Residential

All energy data is from the annual average prices published by the US Energy Information Agency.

Electricity prices are shown as the annual average price in cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh) for all electric industry providers by major end-use sector:  residential, commercial, and industrial.  Historical data is Average Price by State by Provider, Back to 1990.   The current year data is a YTD average taken from the most current issue of the Electric Power Monthly.  The latest reporting month generally has a two month lag.

The change in the indicator value (real and current values) is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value (real and current values) is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year. 

Electricity:  Industrial

All energy data is from the annual average prices published by the US Energy Information Administration.

Electricity prices are shown as the annual average price in cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh) for all electric industry providers by major end-use sector:  residential, commercial, and industrial.  Historical data is Average Price by State by Provider, Back to 1990.   The current year data is a YTD average taken from the most current issue of the Electric Power Monthly.  The latest reporting month generally has a two month lag.

The change in the indicator value (real and current values) is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value (real and current values) is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year. 

Electricity:  Commercial

All energy data is from the annual average prices published by the US Energy Information Administration.

Electricity prices are shown as the annual average price in cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh) for all electric industry providers by major end-use sector:  residential, commercial, and industrial.  Historical data is Average Price by State by Provider, Back to 1990.   The current year data is a YTD average taken from the most current issue of the Electric Power Monthly.  The latest reporting month generally has a two month lag.

The change in the indicator value (real and current values) is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value (real and current values) is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year. 

Natural Gas:  Commercial

All energy data is from the annual average prices published by the US Energy Information Administration.

Natural gas prices are the annual average price of natural gas delivered to major end-use sector:  residential, commercial, and industrial.  All data is from the EIA Natural Gas Prices data series.  The current year data is a YTD average taken from this data, with the latest reporting month generally with a three month lag.  All prices are in dollars per thousand cubic feet (tcf).

The change in the indicator value (real and current values) is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value (real and current values) is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year. 

Natural Gas:  Residential

All energy data is from the annual average prices published by the US Energy Information Agency.

Natural gas prices are the annual average price of natural gas delivered to major end-use sector:  residential, commercial, and industrial.  All data is from the EIA Natural Gas Prices data series.  The current year data is a YTD average taken from this data, with the latest reporting month generally with a three month lag.  All prices are in dollars per thousand cubic feet (tcf).

The change in the indicator value (real and current values) is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value (real and current values) is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year. 

Natural Gas:  Industrial

All energy data is from the annual average prices published by the US Energy Information Administration.

Natural gas prices are the annual average price of natural gas delivered to major end-use sector:  residential, commercial, and industrial.  All data is from the EIA Natural Gas Prices data series.  The current year data is a YTD average taken from this data, with the latest reporting month generally with a three month lag.  All prices are in dollars per thousand cubic feet (tcf).

The change in the indicator value (real and current values) is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value (real and current values) is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year. 

Economic Opportunity

Business Formations

This indicator shows the number of new businesses filing to operate within California, including both newly formed companies and out-of-state companies filing to do business within the state.  The Center is in the process of obtaining detailed data files from the Secretary of State that will enable estimates for the state, counties, regions, and legislative districts.  This data will cover corporations, LLCs, and LLPs.  The current data in the Indicators shows new business incorporations only, with the data taken from the Department of Finance economic indicator files.

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous month.  The change in the base 2007 index value is calculated as the absolute change from the previous month. 

Business Withdrawals

This indicator shows the number of businesses filing to cease operations within California, including both resident and out-of-state companies.  The Center is in the process of obtaining detailed data files from the Secretary of State that will enable estimates for the state, counties, regions, and legislative districts.  This data will cover corporations, LLCs, and LLPs.  No other current data is available for this Indicator.

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous month.  The change in the base 2007 index value is calculated as the absolute change from the previous month. 

Labor Force Participation Rate

This indicator shows the extent to which persons aged 16 and over are entering or leaving the labor force.  To the extent the participation rate is declining (i.e., persons are leaving the labor force), the official unemployment rate masks the extent of true unemployment.  These are person-based measures, where a person is counted as based on their place of residence rather than place of work.

The data sources consist of the official participation rates published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics for the US and California, and the participation rates estimated in the Data Tool for counties, regions, and legislative districts. Both data series are not seasonally adjusted.

For the US and California, the Labor Force Participation Rate is also shown for White, Black, and Hispanic/Latino.  Data for both US and California is from the Current Population Survey.  Data for the US is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Historical data for California was obtained from the Employment Development Department and is updated monthly in EDD’s California Demographic Labor Force Summary Tables.  The Labor Force Participation rate for these categories is calculated each month from a 12-month moving average.

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous month.  The change in the base 2007 index value is calculated as the absolute change from the previous month. 

Economic Conditions of the State:  Good

This indicator is built from a series of survey questions contained in Public Policy Institute of California Statewide Survey:

  • Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 

As such, this indicator provides a long term tracking of “consumer confidence” for the state.  The data is taken from PPIC’s Data Set:  PPIC Statewide Survey - Time Trends for the Mood of Californians.

The survey data in the indicators is from the responses of all adults.  In addition, the PPIC reports also include comparable data for all registered voters and beginning in2001, a series for likely voters.

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous survey.  The change in the base 2007 index value is calculated as the absolute change from the previous survey. 

Economic Conditions of the State:  Bad

This indicator is built from a series of survey questions contained in Public Policy Institute of California Statewide Survey:

  • Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 

As such, this indicator provides a long term tracking of “consumer confidence” for the state.  The data is taken from PPIC’s Data Set:  PPIC Statewide Survey - Time Trends for the Mood of Californians.

The survey data in the indicators is from the responses of all adults.  In addition, the PPIC reports also include comparable data for all registered voters and beginning in 2001, a series for likely voters.

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous survey.  The change in the base 2007 index value is calculated as the absolute change from the previous survey. 

Average of Economic Forecasts:  GDP

These indicators are formed from a running average of the most recent forecasts for the state and US economies.  Currently, the averages are built from forecasts that include the Department of Finance, Legislative Analyst’s Office, Congressional Budget Office, and press reports from three private forecasting operations.

The measures are:

  • US: percent change in real GDP, percent change in nonfarm employment, and national unemployment rate.
  • California: percent change in personal income, percent change in nonfarm employment, and California unemployment rate.

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.

Average of Economic Forecasts:  Jobs

These indicators are formed from a running average of the most recent forecasts for the state and US economies.  Currently, the averages are built from forecasts that include the Department of Finance, Legislative Analyst’s Office, Congressional Budget Office, and press reports from three private forecasting operations.

The measures are:

  • US: percent change in real GDP, percent change in nonfarm employment, and national unemployment rate.
  • California: percent change in personal income, percent change in nonfarm employment, and California unemployment rate.

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.

Average of Economic Forecasts:  Unemployment Rate

These indicators are formed from a running average of the most recent forecasts for the state and US economies.  Currently, the averages are built from forecasts that include the Department of Finance, Legislative Analyst’s Office, Congressional Budget Office, and press reports from three private forecasting operations.

The measures are:

  • US: percent change in real GDP, percent change in nonfarm employment, and national unemployment rate.
  • California: percent change in personal income, percent change in nonfarm employment, and California unemployment rate.

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.

Work Force Preparedness

K-12 Students at Grade Level:  Math

For years 2013 and prior, the Indicator is the percent of students in grades 2-11 testing at the proficient level or above on the California Standards Test (CST). 

Data is provided by Educational Results Partnership.  Data for the Legislative Districts was estimated by ERP from zip code equivalence files provided by the Center.  Data is also provided by ethnic/race and disadvantaged classifications.

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year. 

For years 2015 and after, the Indicator is the comparable metric of students testing at the proficient level or above on the Smarter Balanced Assessment System through the Center’s analysis of the Department of Education data.  No comparable test was given in 2014.  

K-12 Students at Grade Level:  English

For years 2013 and prior, the Indicator is the percent of students in grades 2-11 testing at the proficient level or above on the California Standards Test (CST). 

Data is provided by Educational Results Partnership.  Data for the Legislative Districts was estimated by ERP from zip code equivalence files provided by the Center.  Data is also provided by ethnic/race and disadvantaged classifications.

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year. 

For years 2015 and after, the Indicator is the comparable metric of students testing at the proficient level or above on the Smarter Balanced Assessment System through the Center’s analysis of the Department of Education data.  No comparable test was given in 2014.  

High School Dropout Rate

The Indicator is the percent of the class cohort dropping out of school prior to graduation from high school.  Class cohorts are students who entered as freshman during one academic year who are tracked over four years until graduation.

For years 2012 and prior, data was provided by Educational Results Partnership.  Data for the Legislative Districts was estimated by ERP from zip code equivalence files provided by the Center.    Data is also provided by ethnic/race and disadvantaged classifications.  The data beginning in 2013 was developed the Center’s analysis of the Department of Education data using comparable methods. 

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  Because earlier data is not available, no index was calculated for this Indicator.

College Prepared Students:  Math

The Indicator is the percent of 11th grade students testing as ready for college under the CSU Early Assessment Program (EAP).

For years 2012 and prior, data was provided by Educational Results Partnership.  Data for the Legislative Districts was estimated by ERP from zip code equivalence files provided by the Center.    Data is also provided by ethnic/race and disadvantaged classifications.  The data beginning in 2013 was developed the Center’s analysis of the Department of Education data using comparable methods.

 The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year.

College Prepared Students:  English

The Indicator is the percent of 11th grade students testing as ready for college under the CSU Early Assessment Program (EAP).

For years 2012 and prior, data was provided by Educational Results Partnership.  Data for the Legislative Districts was estimated by ERP from zip code equivalence files provided by the Center.    Data is also provided by ethnic/race and disadvantaged classifications.  The data beginning in 2013 was developed the Center’s analysis of the Department of Education data using comparable methods.

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year.  

Disparity Indicators

Persons Below Poverty

The Indicator shows the percent of population below the federal poverty income threshold.  Data for the US and State is from the Census Bureau, Current Population Survey.  Regional and County data is from the Census Bureau, Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates

The data is based on the official Federal poverty income guidelines.  Income used to compute poverty status is before taxes and covers only Money Income, including earnings, unemployment compensation, workers' compensation, Social Security, Supplemental Security Income, public assistance, veterans' payments, survivor benefits, pension or retirement income, interest, dividends, rents, royalties, income from estates, trusts, educational assistance, alimony, child support, assistance from outside the household, and other miscellaneous sources.  The income base does not include noncash benefits such as food stamps and housing subsidies, and does not include capital gains or losses. 

The Census Bureau also tracks a Supplemental Measure that incorporates the different level of living costs within each of the states and also adjusts for noncash governmental payments.

Data for the Assembly, Senate, and Congressional Districts is estimated from the American Community Survey using a census share method.  The American Community Survey data is used to determine the share of each county’s total persons below poverty by district.  These factors are then applied to the annual county data.  

The change in the indicator value (real and current values) is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value (real and current values) is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year. 

Per Capita Personal Income

Personal income is the sum of wage and salary disbursements, supplements to wages and salaries, proprietors’ income with inventory and capital consumption adjustments, rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, personal dividend income, personal interest income, and personal current transfer receipts, less contributions for government social insurance.  This measure differs from other statistical measures of income, including money income used by the Census Bureau and adjusted gross income reported by the IRS and FTB.

Note that this Indicator differs from most of the others by showing the per capita amount as the Indicator and the total personal income in the 5th and 7th columns.  Per Capita values allow for a more meaningful comparison between geographic areas.

Data for the US, state, and counties is from US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Annual State Personal Income and Employment and Local Areas Personal Income and Employment

Both the total personal income and per capita personal income data are taken from these sources rather than calculating a per capita estimate through the total personal income data and the population estimates contained in the Data Tool.  The estimation approach would produce numbers that differ from the BEA per capita figures by about 1%, and would provide more consistent comparisons within the indicator data.  However, the official data is used in order to retain consistency in the data reporting. 

Note that because BEA calculates the county data independently; the sum of the county personal income does not necessarily equal the state data shown.

Data for the Assembly, Senate, and Congressional Districts is estimated from the American Community Survey using a census share method.  The American Community Survey data is used to determine the share of each county’s total personal income by district.  These factors are then applied to the annual county data.  

The change in the indicator value (per capita and total and real and current values) is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value (per capita and total and real and current values) is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year. 

BEA also produces quarterly personal income data for the US and the states, but not counties.  In order to keep the data series consistent, only the annual data is included in the Indicators.

Part Time Employed

The Indicator shows the percent of Total Civilian Labor Force Employed, age 16 and over, who were employed part time.  Part time is defined as persons working less than 35 hours a week in all jobs for either economic or non-economic reasons.  The percentage is calculated each month from a 12-month moving average.

The Indicator also shows the percent of Total Civilian Labor Force Employed, age 16 and over, who were employed Part Time for Economic Reasons.  In general, people forced to work part time for economic reasons generally cite the reason as inability to find full time work.

Data for both US and California is from the Current Population Survey.  Data for the US is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Historical data for California was obtained from the Employment Development Department and is updated monthly in EDD’s California Labor Market Review.

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous month.  The change in the base 2007 index value is calculated as the absolute change from the previous month. 

Unemployment:   White

The Indicator shows the unemployment rate, Total Civilian Labor Force, age 16 and over, for White Only.  The percentage is calculated each month from a 12-month moving average.

Data for both US and California is from the Current Population Survey.  Data for the US is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Historical data for California was obtained from the Employment Development Department and is updated monthly in EDD’s California Demographic Labor Force Summary Tables..

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous month.  The change in the base 2007 index value is calculated as the absolute change from the previous month. 

Unemployment:   Black

The Indicator shows the unemployment rate, Total Civilian Labor Force, age 16 and over, for Black Only.  The percentage is calculated each month from a 12-month moving average.

Data for both US and California is from the Current Population Survey.  Data for the US is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Historical data for California was obtained from the Employment Development Department and is updated monthly in EDD’s California Demographic Labor Force Summary Tables..

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous month.  The change in the base 2007 index value is calculated as the absolute change from the previous month. 

Unemployment:   Hispanic

The Indicator shows the unemployment rate, Total Civilian Labor Force, age 16 and over, for Hispanic or Latino.  The percentage is calculated each month from a 12-month moving average.

Data for both US and California is from the Current Population Survey.  Data for the US is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Historical data for California was obtained from the Employment Development Department and is updated monthly in EDD’s California Demographic Labor Force Summary Tables.

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous month.  The change in the base 2007 index value is calculated as the absolute change from the previous month. 

Number Receiving Food Stamps

The Indicator shows the number of participants in the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP—Cal Fresh in California).  Data for the US and California is the average monthly participation from the Food and Nutrition Services of the US Department of Agriculture.   

County and Legislative District data is estimated from zip code data obtained from the California Department of Social Services from the Medi-Cal Eligibility Determination System (MEDS) database.  The estimates are calculated only from zip codes with disclosable data, generally zip codes with more than 10 participants.

The change in the indicator value (per 1000 population values and total) is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value (per 1000 population values and total) is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year. 

Number Receiving Social Security Disability

The Indicator shows the number of workers receiving Social Security Disability in December of each year.  Data for the US, California, counties, and regions is from Tables 2 and 4 of US Social Security Administration, OASDI Beneficiaries by State and County.  Data for the Assembly, Senate, and Congressional Districts is estimated from US Social Security Administration, OASDI Beneficiaries by State and Zip Code.  Both reports are generally released in early Fall for the prior year.

The change in the indicator value (per 1000 population values and total) is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value (per 1000 population values and total) is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year. 

State Revenue Measures

PIT Receipts:  AGI

State and county data for returns filed by residents was taken from the annual statistical appendices of the Franchise Tax Board.  Legislative Districts were estimated from Personal Income Tax data by zip code provided by the Statistical Research & Modeling Section of the Franchise Tax Board, with assistance through Board of Equalization Boardmember George Runner’s office.  The zip code data was aggregated by legislative district based on zip code equivalence files.  Data elements consist of Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) reported on those returns, and total state tax assessed.

The change in the indicator value (total and per capita real and current values) is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value (total and per capita real and current values) is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year. 

For counties, regions, and legislative districts, the data shown covers only returns that could be allocated within the state.  The summation of these geographic areas differ from the state totals due to the following factors:  (1) additional returns are filed by out of state individuals for income earned within California, (2) a relatively small number of returns are unallocated by geographic area, and (3) some of the returns are not disclosable by zip code or county level.   These amounts are included with the state data but are not allocated by the various geographic regions.

PIT Receipts:  Tax Liability

State and county data for returns filed by residents was taken from the annual statistical appendices of the Franchise Tax Board.  Legislative Districts were estimated from Personal Income Tax data by zip code provided by the Statistical Research & Modeling Section of the Franchise Tax Board, with assistance through Board of Equalization Boardmember George Runner’s office.  The zip code data was aggregated by legislative district based on zip code equivalence files.  Data elements consist of Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) reported on those returns, and total state tax assessed.

The change in the indicator value (total and per capita real and current values) is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value (total and per capita real and current values) is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year. 

For counties, regions, and legislative districts, the data shown covers only returns that could be allocated within the state.  The summation of these geographic areas differ from the state totals due to the following factors:  (1) additional returns are filed by out of state individuals for income earned within California, (2) a relatively small number of returns are unallocated by geographic area, and (3) some of the returns are not disclosable by zip code or county level.   These amounts are included with the state data but are not allocated by the various geographic regions.

S&P 500 Index

State finances, including their impact on local government finances, have increasingly become dependent on incomes of the top tier of California income earners, a situation that has become even more pronounced following the passage of the Proposition 30 temporary tax increases.  Tax revenues from these upper incomes in turn are largely dependently on capital gains.  In 2014-15, total capital gains taxes are projected by Department of Finance to constitute nearly 10% of the General Fund.  The Indicator tracks performance of the stock market, a key source of capital gains.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad index tracking the large cap US equities market.  The index covers 500 leading companies on both the NYSE and NASDAQ, and accounts for about 75% of the US equities.  The Index incorporates only prices, and is not a total return index that also covers dividends.

Data in the Indicators is the monthly Index average, from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) data bank maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank.

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous month.  The change in the base 2007 index value for the S&P 500 Index is calculated as the absolute change from the previous month. 

CIT Receipts:  Income

State data was taken from the annual statistical appendices of the Franchise Tax Board.  Corporate Income Tax data by zip code was provided by the Statistical Research & Modeling Section of the Franchise Tax Board, with assistance through Board of Equalization Boardmember George Runner’s office.  The zip code data was aggregated by legislative district and county based on zip code equivalence files provided to FTB by the Center.  Data elements consist of net income reported on those returns, and total state tax assessed.

The change in the indicator value (total and per capita real and current values) is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value (total and per capita real and current values) is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year. 

For counties, regions, and legislative districts, the data shown covers only returns that could be allocated by zip code within the state.  Additional returns are filed by out of state corporations covering their sales within the state.  These amounts are included with the state data but are not allocated by the various geographic regions.

CIT Receipts:  Tax Assessed

State data was taken from the annual statistical appendices of the Franchise Tax Board.  Corporate Income Tax data by zip code was provided by the Statistical Research & Modeling Section of the Franchise Tax Board, with assistance through Board of Equalization Boardmember George Runner’s office.  The zip code data was aggregated by legislative district and county based on zip code equivalence files provided to FTB by the Center.  Data elements consist of net income reported on those returns, and total state tax assessed.

The change in the indicator value (total and per capita real and current values) is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value (total and per capita real and current values) is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year. 

For counties, regions, and legislative districts, the data shown covers only returns that could be allocated by zip code within the state.  Additional returns are filed by out of state corporations covering their sales within the state.  These amounts are included with the state data but are not allocated by the various geographic regions.

YTD Cash Flow vs. Projections:  Revenues

The California State Controller along with the Department of Finance publishes monthly General Fund cash flow reports comparing actual revenues and expenses from projections contained in the current year adopted budget, as updated by the Governor’s budget proposals throughout the first half of the year.  The two reports often differ in the precise numbers, with the Finance report containing some month-end agency spending and payables/receivables data not always immediately available to the Controller. 

Combined, these Indicators reflect changing economic conditions compared to expected economic performance incorporated into the Budget.  Revenues covers all General Fund receipts, mainly consisting of the three individual taxes below.  These revenues do not include Special Funds, a rapidly growing segment of the total State Budget, or bond and Federal funds.

Data is from the State Controllers monthly reports.  All data is the fiscal YTD difference between actual revenues/expenditures vs. Budget cash flow projections.  For example, a positive number indicates the actual revenue/expenditure is higher than the Budget projections.  A negative number shows it is below.  All numbers are in $ millions.

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous month. 

YTD Cash Flow vs. Projections:  PIT

The California State Controller along with the Department of Finance publishes monthly General Fund cash flow reports comparing actual revenues and expenses from projections contained in the current year adopted budget, as updated by the Governor’s budget proposals throughout the first half of the year.  The two reports often differ in the precise numbers, with the Finance report containing some month-end agency spending and payables/receivables data not always immediately available to the Controller. 

Combined, these Indicators reflect changing economic conditions compared to expected economic performance incorporated into the Budget.  PIT covers all revenues from the personal income tax.  Broadly viewed, PIT receipts are an indication of whether the economy is performing better or worse than expected.  However, because of the steep progressivity of the state income tax and its reliance on capital gains, this measure is becoming more an indication of financial well-being of the upper income levels in the state rather than a direct measure of economic health.

Data is from the State Controllers monthly reports.  All data is the fiscal YTD difference between actual revenues/expenditures vs. Budget cash flow projections.  For example, a positive number indicates the actual revenue/expenditure is higher than the Budget projections.  A negative number shows it is below.  All numbers are in $ millions.

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous month. 

YTD Cash Flow vs. Projections:  SUT

The California State Controller along with the Department of Finance publishes monthly General Fund cash flow reports comparing actual revenues and expenses from projections contained in the current year adopted budget, as updated by the Governor’s budget proposals throughout the first half of the year.  The two reports often differ in the precise numbers, with the Finance report containing some month-end agency spending and payables/receivables data not always immediately available to the Controller. 

Combined, these Indicators reflect changing economic conditions compared to expected economic performance incorporated into the Budget.  SUT covers General Fund receipts from the sales and use tax; other portions of this tax go to Special Funds and local agencies.  While SUT does not cover all consumer purchases in the state, it does generally track retail sales and provides a measure of the consumer side of the economy.

Data is from the State Controllers monthly reports.  All data is the fiscal YTD difference between actual revenues/expenditures vs. Budget cash flow projections.  For example, a positive number indicates the actual revenue/expenditure is higher than the Budget projections.  A negative number shows it is below.  All numbers are in $ millions.

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous month. 

YTD Cash Flow vs. Projections:  CIT

The California State Controller along with the Department of Finance publishes monthly General Fund cash flow reports comparing actual revenues and expenses from projections contained in the current year adopted budget, as updated by the Governor’s budget proposals throughout the first half of the year.  The two reports often differ in the precise numbers, with the Finance report containing some month-end agency spending and payables/receivables data not always immediately available to the Controller. 

Combined, these Indicators reflect changing economic conditions compared to expected economic performance incorporated into the Budget.  CIT covers receipts from the corporate income tax.  While this Indicator provides some correlation with general economic conditions, CIT receipts in recent years have been dominated more by the increasing complexity of and increasing changes to state corporate tax provisions.

Data is from the State Controllers monthly reports.  All data is the fiscal YTD difference between actual revenues/expenditures vs. Budget cash flow projections.  For example, a positive number indicates the actual revenue/expenditure is higher than the Budget projections.  A negative number shows it is below.  All numbers are in $ millions.

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous month. 

YTD Cash Flow vs. Projections:  Expenses

The California State Controller along with the Department of Finance publishes monthly General Fund cash flow reports comparing actual revenues and expenses from projections contained in the current year adopted budget, as updated by the Governor’s budget proposals throughout the first half of the year.  The two reports often differ in the precise numbers, with the Finance report containing some month-end agency spending and payables/receivables data not always immediately available to the Controller. 

Combined, these Indicators reflect changing economic conditions compared to expected economic performance incorporated into the Budget.  This Indicator covers monthly deviations in General Fund expenditures.  While individual month variances often reflect one-time cash flow issues (e.g., incurring expenses but not paying until the following month, delaying payments to local agencies), persistent variances in the same direction likely reflect changes in economic conditions.  Due to the caseload-driven nature of most General Fund expenditures (i.e., nearly 90% of General Fund expenditures are for education, health and welfare programs, and corrections), changes in economic conditions are often reflected in changing demand for state expenditures.  These changes may also be the result of broader economic factors such as higher energy prices. 

Data is from the State Controllers monthly reports.  All data is the fiscal YTD difference between actual revenues/expenditures vs. Budget cash flow projections.  For example, a positive number indicates the actual revenue/expenditure is higher than the Budget projections.  A negative number shows it is below.  All numbers are in $ millions.

The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous month. 

Quality of Life

Housing:  Percent Owner-Occupied

The Indicator shows the percentage of housing units that are owner-occupied rather than rented. Data is from the American Community Survey, Table B25003, Tenure. Data for all geographic areas is from the 5-year estimates.

Data is shown as the percent of units that are owner-occupied. The change in the indicator value is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.

Travel Time to Work

The Indicator shows the percentage of workers age 16 and over commuting (one way) 30 minutes or more to work.  The data only covers commuters and does not include persons working from their home.  Data is from the American Community Survey, Table B08303, Travel Time to Work, for the 5-year estimates. 

For all workers age 16 and over, columns 3-7 show the mode of commuting used, measured by the percentage of workers using each of the following:  single occupant vehicles, car pools, public transit (bus, streetcar, trolley, subway, railroad, or ferryboat), other (walking, bicycle, taxi, motorcycle, and other), and working from home. 

The change in the indicator values are calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.

Property Crime Rate

Crime data is taken from the California Attorney General reports and the FBI’s Bureau of Justice Statistics Uniform Crime Reporting Statistics.  Two data elements are provided.  Violent Crimes consists of:  Homicide, Forcible Rape, Robbery, and Aggravated Assault.  Property Crimes consists of:  Burglary, Motor Vehicle Theft, and Larceny.

The crimes covered in these two data elements cover the “Part 1” crimes reported under the Uniform Crime Reporting System.  Arson is the other Part 1 crime included in these reports, but is not included in the Indicator data.  Police agencies provide both crime and clearance rate (crimes cleared through arrest or exceptional means).

Part 2 crimes not included in this data cover:  Other Assaults (simple); Forgery and Counterfeiting; Fraud; Embezzlement; Stolen Property:  Buying, Receiving, Possessing; Prostitution and Commercialized Vice; Sex Offenses (except forcible rape, prostitution, and commercialized vice); Drug Abuse Violations; Gambling; Offenses Against the Family and Children; Driving Under the Influence; Liquor Law; Drunkenness; Disorderly Conduct; Vagrancy; All Other Offenses not identified as Part 1 or Part 2; Suspicion; Curfew and Loitering Laws (persons under age 18); and Runaways (persons under age 18).  Police provide only crime data for Part 2 crimes.

Crime rate data is shown as number of crimes per 100,000 population.  The data for the US, California is taken from the sources above.  Crimes rates for the counties (and regions) were calculated using the population data in the Attorney General data.  However, the Attorney General data does not calculate this rate for the smaller counties:  Alpine, Amador, Calaveras, Colusa, Del Norte, Glenn, Inyo, Lake, Lassen, Mariposa, Mendocino, Modoc, Mono, Nevada, Plumas, San Benito, Sierra, Siskiyou, Sutter, Tehama, Trinity, Tuolumne, and Yuba.  Comparable crime rates through 2009 are calculated for these counties using the Attorney General data.  These rates are far more sensitive to small changes in the crimes data and more sensitive to changes in reporting procedures by the component police agencies, in particular for Alpine County.  Consequently, they should be treated as such.

The Attorney General’s online data bases for the years beginning in 2010 are currently far less comprehensive than earlier years.  Crime rates beginning in 2010 were therefore calculated from the Department of Finance population estimates contained in the Data Tool.  Shifts in crime rates due to this change in data source should be also be considered in doing any trend comparisons.  These calculated crime rates will be updated as data becomes available from the Attorney General.

The change in the indicator value (crimes per 100,000 population and total crimes) is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value (crimes per 100,000 population and total crimes) is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year. 

Violent Crime Rate

Crime data is taken from the California Attorney General reports and the FBI’s Bureau of Justice Statistics Uniform Crime Reporting Statistics.  Two data elements are provided.  Violent Crimes consists of:  Homicide, Forcible Rape, Robbery, and Aggravated Assault.  Property Crimes consists of:  Burglary, Motor Vehicle Theft, and Larceny.

The crimes covered in these two data elements cover the “Part 1” crimes reported under the Uniform Crime Reporting System.  Arson is the other Part 1 crime included in these reports, but is not included in the Indicator data.  Police agencies provide both crime and clearance rate (crimes cleared through arrest or exceptional means).

Part 2 crimes not included in this data cover:  Other Assaults (simple); Forgery and Counterfeiting; Fraud; Embezzlement; Stolen Property:  Buying, Receiving, Possessing; Prostitution and Commercialized Vice; Sex Offenses (except forcible rape, prostitution, and commercialized vice); Drug Abuse Violations; Gambling; Offenses Against the Family and Children; Driving Under the Influence; Liquor Law; Drunkenness; Disorderly Conduct; Vagrancy; All Other Offenses not identified as Part 1 or Part 2; Suspicion; Curfew and Loitering Laws (persons under age 18); and Runaways (persons under age 18).  Police provide only crime data for Part 2 crimes.

Crime rate data is shown as number of crimes per 100,000 population.  The data for the US, California is taken from the sources above.  Crimes rates for the counties (and regions) were calculated using the population data in the Attorney General data.  However, the Attorney General data does not calculate this rate for the smaller counties:  Alpine, Amador, Calaveras, Colusa, Del Norte, Glenn, Inyo, Lake, Lassen, Mariposa, Mendocino, Modoc, Mono, Nevada, Plumas, San Benito, Sierra, Siskiyou, Sutter, Tehama, Trinity, Tuolumne, and Yuba.  Comparable crime rates through 2009 are calculated for these counties using the Attorney General data.  These rates are far more sensitive to small changes in the crimes data and more sensitive to changes in reporting procedures by the component police agencies, in particular for Alpine County.  Consequently, they should be treated as such.

The Attorney General’s online data bases for the years beginning in 2010 are currently far less comprehensive than earlier years.  Crime rates beginning in 2010 were therefore calculated from the Department of Finance population estimates contained in the Data Tool.  Shifts in crime rates due to this change in data source should be also be considered in doing any trend comparisons.  These calculated crime rates will be updated as data becomes available from the Attorney General.

The change in the indicator value (crimes per 100,000 population and total crimes) is calculated as the percentage change from the previous year.  The change in the base 2007 index value (crimes per 100,000 population and total crimes) is calculated as the absolute change from the previous year.  

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