03/29/2024

No Recovery: An Analysis of Long-Term U.S. Productivity Decline

We’ve been told that the economy is on its way back.

In the seven years since the Great Recession, job growth in the United States has been steady and unemployment has fallen from 10% to just under 5%. Booming tech and professional services sectors should denote a healthy economy, but a new Gallup analysis identifies fundamental weaknesses in the U.S. economy that have emerged over decades.

Economic growth has gradually fallen since the 1970s and 1980s, and three large sectors bear primary responsibility for the malaise: healthcare, housing and education. In 1980, healthcare, housing and education claimed 25% of national spending. By 2015, that share had ballooned to 36%. The costs to both national and per capita GDP are enormous.

As the costs of these services rise, the value they generate — in terms of health, learning and shelter — has stagnated or even declined. When the quality-to-cost ratio falls, living standards do as well.

Gallup’s analysis, in collaboration with the U.S. Council on Competitiveness, presents the causes and effects of long-term U.S. productivity decline, and makes a case for a new growth strategy.

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