March 12, 2015
UCLA Anderson Forecast’s first quarterly report for the United States economy says that the nation “looks like an island of stability in a very volatile world.” The implication is that the U.S. is still on track for 3% GDP growth for the next two years, despite slow growth and currency devaluations throughout much of the rest of the developed world. Payroll employment is expected to increase at a 250,000-per-month pace and the national unemployment rate will hit 5% by year’s end. The California forecast is not much changed in the three months since the last release. Slightly weaker first and second quarters for 2015 are anticipated for California (when compared to the December report), which will be offset by stronger third and fourth quarters.