Reports

Highlights for policy makers:

• Unemployment Rises to 4.2%; Employment Up 35,200
• Labor Force Participation Rate Rises to 62.7%
• Labor Force by Age
• Employment Growth Ranking—California Back to 1st
• Nonfarm Jobs Up 24,500 for Month; California Remains Ranked #2 for 12-month Gain
• Jobs Change by Industry
• Structural Shifts in State’s Economy
• Unemployment Rates by Region
• Employment Growth by Region
• 20 MSAs with the Worst Unemployment Rates
• Chart of the Month: WARN Act Notices

Below are highlights from the recently released trade data from the US Census Bureau and US Bureau of Economic Analysis. To view additional data and analysis related to the California economy visit our website at www.centerforjobs.org/ca.

Below are the monthly updates from the most current January 2019 fuel price data (GasBuddy.com) and November 2018 electricity and natural gas price data (US Energy Information Agency). To view additional data and analysis related to the California economy visit our website at www.centerforjobs.org/ca.

Below are the monthly updates from the most current February 2019 fuel price data (GasBuddy.com) and December 2018 electricity and natural gas price data (US Energy Information Agency). To view additional data and analysis related to the California economy visit our website at www.centerforjobs.org/ca.

The latest new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association indicates that sales once again exceeded 2 million units for the year. Although slowing 2.2% from the prior year, this indicator reflects the level of overall consumer confidence and continuing strength of the recovery. New vehicle sales are also a critical indicator of state and local revenues, with Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers (NAICS 441) producing 13.1% of total sales and use tax in the most recent data for the first three quarters of 2017.

• Light truck market share in the quarter was 57.3%, up from 54.0% in Q4 2017, as consumers continue to show a growing preference for this type of vehicle.

• Consumer shifts to light trucks for the US outside California continued to be more pronounced, accounting for 70.6% of new light vehicle sales in this quarter and 68.8% for the year overall. The potential for California’s ZEV policies to be replicated beyond its borders remains low as the market segment targeted by most PEV models—cars—continues to contract as a result of consumer preferences.

• The trend towards light trucks continues in spite of higher fuel prices. The average California price for regular gas in Q4 2018 was $3.70 a gallon, 19.5% higher than the prior year’s $3.13.

Highlights for policymakers:

• Unemployment Rises to 4.2%; Employment Up 68,700
• Labor Force Participation Rate Rises to 62.5%
• Employment Growth Ranking—California Stays in 2nd
• Nonfarm Jobs Up 24,500 for Month; California Remains Ranked #2 for 12-month Gain
• Jobs Change by Industry
• Structural Shifts in State’s Economy
• Unemployment Rates by Region
• Employment Growth by Region
• Unemployment Rates by Legislative District
• 10 MSAs with the Worst Unemployment Rates

Below are the monthly updates from the most current December 2018 fuel price data (GasBuddy.com) and October 2018 electricity and natural gas price data (US Energy Information Agency).

Highlights for policy makers:

• Unemployment Rate Level at 4.1%; Total Employment Up 73,200
• Labor Force Participation Rate Level Up to 62.3%
• State Employment Growth Rankings—California 4th Highest
• Nonfarm Jobs Up 36,400
• 4 Industries Still below 2007 Pre-Recession Job Levels
• Job Gains by Wage Level
• Two-Tier Economy Persists—Central Valley Unemployment More than Twice as High as Bay Area
• Bay Area Provided 37.6% of Net Employment Growth Since Recession
• 8 California MSAs in the 10 Worst Unemployment Rates Nationally

The latest new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association indicates that while still projected to be at the fourth highest level during the past 11 years, new vehicle sales in California are now expected to be just shy of 2 million for the year.  Q3 deliveries for battery electric plug-ins (BEVs) continued to be up primarily as a result of Tesla fulfilling reservations for Model 3 made in prior quarters beginning in 2017.  Total PEV sales (plug-in hybrids and BEVs) were up due to this factor and the continued shift from standard hybrid to PEV sales.  Key findings from the data:

• Light truck market share was 55.5%, up from 51.3% in Q2 2017, as consumers continue to show a preference for this type of vehicle.

• Consumer shifts to light trucks for the US outside California was even more pronounced, accounting for 71.3% of new light vehicle sales in this quarter. The potential for California’s ZEV policies to be replicated beyond its borders remains low as the market segment targeted by most PEV models—cars—continues to contract as a result of consumer preferences.  This trend is evident in GM’s recent announcement on the likely closing of three plants producing sedans (including the Volt PHEV) in order to move the company’s focus more to the light trucks/SUVs/crossovers consumers are buying as well as electric vehicles—which produce the credits needed to stay in compliance with both CAFE and ZEV regulations while enabling continued sales of the more profitable light truck models.  This action follows on similar but earlier moves by Ford and Fiat Chrysler.

• The trend towards light trucks continues in spite of higher fuel prices. The average California price for regular gas in Q3 2018 was $3.64 a gallon, 19.5% higher than the prior year’s $3.05.

Highlights for policy makers:

• Unemployment Rate Level at 4.1%; Total Employment Up 54,600
• Labor Force Participation Rate Level at 62.1%
• State Employment Growth Rankings—California 4th Highest
• Nonfarm Jobs Up 36,400
• Four Industries Still below 2007 Pre-Recession Job Levels
• Job Gains by Wage Level
• Two-Tier Economy Persists—Central Valley Unemployment More than Twice as High as Bay Area
• Bay Area Provided 37.9% of Net Employment Growth Since Recession
• Six California MSAs in the 10 Worst Unemployment Rates Nationally

Highlights for policy makers:

• Unemployment Rate Level at 4.1%; Total Employment Up 34,600
• Labor Force Participation Rate Level at 62.0%
• State Employment Growth Rankings—California Remains at 5th
• Nonfarm Jobs Up 13,200
• Four Industries Still below 2007 Pre-Recession Job Levels
• Job Gains by Wage Level
• Two-Tier Economy Persists—Central Valley Unemployment More than Twice as High as Bay Area
• Bay Area Provided 39.5% of Net Employment Growth Since Recession
• Six California MSAs in the 10 Worst Unemployment Rates Nationally

Highlights for policy makers:

• Unemployment Rate Level at 4.2%; Total Employment Up 7,300
• Labor Force Participation Rate Level at 61.9%
• State Employment Growth Rankings—California Remains at 5th
• Nonfarm Jobs Up 44,800
• Four Industries Still below 2007 Pre-Recession Job Levels
• Job Gains by Wage Level
• Two-Tier Economy Persists—Central Valley Unemployment More than Twice as High as Bay Area
• Bay Area Provided 40.4% of Net Employment Growth Since Recession
• Seven California MSAs in the 10 Worst Unemployment Rates Nationally

The latest new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association  indicates that new vehicle sales remain on track again to exceed 2 million for the year, even though Q2 sales were down slightly by 0.7% compared to the same quarter in 2017.  Q2 sales for battery electric plug-ins (BEVs) were up primarily as a result of Tesla finally fulfilling earlier reservations for Model 3. Total PEV sales (plug-in hybrids and BEVs) were up due to this result and the continued shift from standard hybrid to PEV sales. Key findings from the data: 

• Light truck market share was 55.5%, up from 50.4% in Q2 2017. The growing consumer preference for larger vehicles continues to be a contra-trend affecting the state’s ability to achieve its ZEV goals, as fewer models are available in this market component at price points that would achieve broader sales. The few models that are now offered in this class tend to be in the high end of the market.

• Consumer shifts to light trucks for the US outside California was even more pronounced, accounting for 69.6% of new light vehicle sales in this quarter. The potential for California’s ZEV policies to have much of an effect beyond its borders are increasingly limited as a consequence, as few models are being offered for the types of vehicles consumers prefer to buy.

• The trend towards light trucks came even in spite of higher fuel prices. The average California price for regular gas in Q2 2018 was $3.66 a gallon, 21.0% higher than the prior year’s $3.03.

Highlights for policy makers:

• Unemployment Rate Level at 4.2%; Total Employment Up 13,500
• Labor Force Participation Rate Level at 61.9%
• State Employment Growth Rankings—California Drops to 5th
• Nonfarm Jobs Up 46,700
• Four Industries Still below 2007 Pre-Recession Job Levels
• Job Gains by Wage Level
• Two-Tier Economy Persists—Central Valley Unemployment More than Twice as High as Bay Area
• Bay Area Provided 40.4% of Net Employment Growth Since Recession
• Nine California MSAs in the 10 Worst Unemployment Rates Nationally

Highlights for policy makers:

• Unemployment Rate Level at 4.2%; Total Employment Down 8,900
• Labor Force Participation Rate Level Continues Dip to 61.9%
• State Employment Growth Rankings—California Drops to 3rd
• Nonfarm Jobs Little Changed at 800
• Four Industries Still below 2007 Pre-Recession Job Levels
• Job Gains by Wage Level
• Two-Tier Economy Persists—Central Valley Unemployment More than Twice as High as Bay Area
• Bay Area Provided 39.6% of Net Employment Growth Since Recession
• Eight California MSAs in the 10 Worst Unemployment Rates Nationally