01/16/2019

Reports » Job Reports

July 2018 Jobs Report

Download July 2018 Jobs Report

Highlights for policy makers:

Unemployment Rate Level at 4.2%; Total Employment up 13,500

The Labor Force data for July 2018 (seasonally adjusted; California preliminary) is shown below, along with the change from the prior month:

Seasonally Adjusted California US
Jul 2018 Change from Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Change from Jun 2018
Unemployment Rate 4.2% 0.0 3.9% -0.1
Labor Force 19,348,000 0.0% 162,245,000 0.1%
Participation Rate 61.9% 0.0 62.9% 0.0
Employment 18,540,600 0.1% 155,965,000 0.3%
Unemployment 807,400 -0.8% 6,280,000 -4.3%
Source: California Employment Development Department; US Bureau of Labor Statistics

 

The related not seasonally adjusted numbers (California preliminary), with the change from July 2017:

Not Seasonally Adjusted California US
Jul 2018 Change from Jul 2017 Jul 2018 Change from Jul 2017
Unemployment Rate 4.4% -0.7 4.1% -0.5
Labor Force 19,469,500 0.3% 163,734,000 1.1%
Participation Rate 62.3% -0.3 63.5% 0.0
Employment 18,613,000 1.1% 157,004,000 1.6%
Unemployment 856,500 -14.0% 6,730,000 -9.6%
Source: California Employment Development Department; US Bureau of Labor Statistics

 

California Employment Development Department’s (EDD) latest data shows on a seasonally adjusted basis, total employment rose 13,500 from June, while the number of unemployed fell 6,800. The labor force notched up by 6,700.

California’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, the lowest level in the current data series that began in 1976. California tied with Illinois, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania for the 16th highest unemployment rate among the states. The unadjusted rate dropped from 5.1% in July 2017 to 4.4%.

Total US employment saw a seasonally adjusted gain of 389,000 from June, while the number of unemployed dropped by 284,000 as the total labor force grew by 105,000. The national unemployment rate dipped to 3.9%.

Labor Force Participation Rate Level at 61.9%

California’s participation rate (seasonally adjusted) in July remained at 61.9%, while the US rate stayed at 62.9%. The California rate matched the revised series low reached previously in 2015.

California’s labor force grew only 16,922 over the year ending July 2018, or 0.1% growth. The US as a whole grew 1.8 million – a 1.1% expansion. While workers elsewhere continue to return to the workforce, California’s continued low rate has implications for future growth in the state, including the ability to sustain jobs expansion as fewer workers are available and continued effects on state and local budgets for higher social program spending compared to other states.

Considered by age, the prime working age groups in California (age 25-54 and 55-64) remain somewhat below their previous highs since 2000, with youth employment remaining below levels from a year ago. These trends, in particular, have long-term implications for income distributions in the state, as most studies indicate that work skills developed through early employment are correlated with long-term earnings potential. In contrast to the younger groups, persons 65 and older show a higher labor force participation rate compared to the prior low at the beginning of this period.

Labor Force Participation Rate by Age (12-month moving average)

Prior Max July 2018
Total 67.2% 62.2%
16-19 46.8% 27.2%
20-24 76.4% 65.9%
25-54 82.1% 80.3%
55-64 66.3% 63.5%
Prior Min
65+ 12.1% 19.7%
Source: Current Population Survey microdata; EDD
Note: All entries from 12-month moving average

State Employment Growth Rankings—California Drops to 5th

Change in Employment, July 2017 – July 2018

Rank Number of Employed Percentage Change Population Adjusted
(employment growth per 1,000 civilian
noninstitutional population)
1 TX 295,200 MA 3.5% MA 22.4
2 FL 160,100 CO 2.9% CO 19.2
3 MA 124,900 NV 2.7% DC 16.7
4 GA 121,300 NM 2.6% NV 16.2
5 CA 120,600 DC 2.5% ID 15.3
6 CO 84,400 GA 2.5% GA 15.1
7 NC 70,100 ID 2.5% DE 14.5
8 VA 66,700 DE 2.4% NM 14.1
9 AZ 60,900 TX 2.3% UT 14.0
10 IN 58,200 UT 2.1% TX 13.9
11 MN 56,200 AZ 1.9% MN 12.9
12 IL 49,100 OK 1.9% OK 11.3
13 TN 46,700 MN 1.9% IN 11.2
14 NV 38,000 IN 1.8% AZ 11.1
15 OH 37,600 FL 1.6% VA 10.1
16 WI 36,800 VA 1.6% NH 10.0
17 MI 34,800 RI 1.6% RI 9.7
18 WA 34,300 NH 1.5% FL 9.4
19 OK 33,900 TN 1.5% VT 9.3
20 UT 31,500 NC 1.5% TN 8.8
21 AL 28,100 VT 1.4% NC 8.7
22 LA 27,800 LA 1.4% WI 8.0
23 NM 22,800 AL 1.4% LA 7.7
24 KY 22,500 WI 1.2% AL 7.3
25 ID 19,900 KY 1.1% SD 7.1
26 MO 16,200 SD 1.1% KY 6.5
27 IA 13,100 ME 1.0% ME 6.4
28 OR 11,700 WA 1.0% WA 5.9
29 SC 11,300 IA 0.8% IA 5.3
30 DE 11,100 NE 0.8% NE 5.3
31 NH 11,000 IL 0.8% IL 4.9
32 DC 9,500 MS 0.8% MI 4.4
33 MS 9,200 MI 0.7% HI 4.3
34 RI 8,400 HI 0.7% OH 4.1
35 NE 7,800 OH 0.7% MS 4.0
36 ME 7,100 CA 0.7% CA 3.9
37 VT 4,800 OR 0.6% OR 3.5
38 HI 4,700 MO 0.6% MO 3.4
39 SD 4,700 WV 0.5% SC 2.9
40 WV 3,900 SC 0.5% WV 2.7
US 2,454,000 US 1.6% US 9.6
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted

 

Between July 2017 and July 2018, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data shows the total number of employed in California increased by 120,600 (seasonally adjusted), or 4.9% of the total net employment gains in this period for the US. Based on the total numbers, California dropped to 5th place behind Texas (which has a civilian working-age population only 69% as large as California’s), Florida (55% as large), Massachusetts, and Georgia. Measured by the percentage change in employment over the year, California dropped to 36th highest. Adjusted for working-age population, California dropped to 36th as well.

Nonfarm Jobs Up 46,700

EDD reported that between June and July 2018, seasonally adjusted nonfarm wage and salary jobs grew by 46,700. June’s results were revised to a 21,500 gain from the previously reported 800.

In the not seasonally adjusted nonfarm numbers that allow a more detailed look at industry shifts, hiring saw increases in all but 3 industries over the year. The change in total payroll jobs from July 2017 saw the largest increases in Food Services (46,700), Construction (37,500), and Government (32,700). Declines were in Real Estate & Rental & Leasing (-1,400), Mining & Logging (-400), and Utilities (-100).

Not Seasonally Adjusted Payroll Jobs Jul 2018 Jun 2018 Change Jul 2018 – Jun 2018 Change Jul 2018 – Jul 2017
Total Farm 479,000 490,600 -11,600 3,500
Mining and Logging 22,700 22,200 500 -400
Construction 867,300 863,500 3,800 37,500
Manufacturing 1,329,900 1,319,700 10,200 6,800
Wholesale Trade 728,200 724,300 3,900 1,400
Retail Trade 1,689,200 1,680,400 8,800 11,600
Utilities 58,100 58,100 0 -100
Transportation & Warehousing 589,600 584,500 5,100 26,300
Information 544,100 537,300 6,800 17,400
Finance & Insurance 548,800 545,800 3,000 100
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 286,500 287,500 -1,000 -1,400
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1,270,800 1,268,900 1,900 30,800
Management of Companies & Enterprises 235,900 234,800 1,100 3,300
Administrative & Support & Waste Services 1,135,000 1,127,600 7,400 29,200
Educational Services 355,100 369,200 -14,100 22,000
Health Care 1,531,400 1,525,800 5,600 29,100
Social Assistance 796,600 804,400 -7,800 23,900
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 329,700 321,300 8,400 6,700
Accommodation 238,200 239,100 -900 5,800
Food Services 1,477,800 1,465,500 12,300 46,700
Other Services 567,700 570,200 -2,500 1,900
Government 2,450,000 2,627,900 -177,900 32,700
Total Nonfarm 17,052,600 17,178,000 -125,400 331,300
Total Wage and Salary 17,531,600 17,668,600 -137,000 334,800
Source: California Employment Development Department

 

At a 332,700 increase, California remained at 2nd highest measured by seasonally adjusted nonfarm jobs among the states from July 2017 to July 2018, behind Texas at 377,100. By percentage growth in jobs, California rose to 11th highest at 2.0%, above the US average. By population adjusted jobs growth, California rose to 17th highest.

Change in Nonfarm Jobs (seasonally adjusted), July 2017 – July 2018

Rank Number of Jobs Employment Growth (%) Population Adjusted
(jobs growth per 1,000 civilian
noninstitutional population)
1 TX 377,100 UT 3.5% UT 22.7
2 CA 332,700 NV 3.4% NV 19.6
3 FL 210,600 ID 3.4% ID 18.6
4 NY 117,000 TX 3.1% TX 17.7
5 NC 106,900 WA 3.1% CO 17.7
6 WA 102,500 CO 2.9% WA 17.6
7 GA 83,200 OR 2.5% OR 14.3
8 OH 82,200 FL 2.5% NC 13.3
9 CO 77,700 NC 2.4% DC 12.8
10 NJ 75,500 AZ 2.2% FL 12.4
11 PA 71,900 CA 2.0% WY 12.3
12 MA 66,800 WY 2.0% MA 12.0
13 MI 66,300 HI 1.9% NE 11.9
14 IL 65,700 NH 1.9% NH 11.6
15 VA 62,600 TN 1.9% HI 11.6
16 AZ 61,100 GA 1.9% AZ 11.2
17 TN 56,300 RI 1.9% CA 10.7
18 UT 51,100 MA 1.8% RI 10.7
19 OR 47,700 NJ 1.8% TN 10.7
20 NV 46,000 OK 1.8% KS 10.5
21 MN 43,100 NE 1.7% NJ 10.5
22 WI 38,800 KS 1.7% GA 10.4
23 SC 34,800 SC 1.7% MN 9.9
24 MO 34,700 NM 1.6% OK9.8
25 OK 29,500 VA 1.6% VA 9.5
US2,400,000 US1.6% US9.4
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Four Industries Still below 2007 Pre-Recession Job Levels

Source: California Employment Development Department, not seasonally adjusted; wages are running 4 quarter average from QCEW wage data

 

Comparing the number of jobs by industry in July 2018 (not seasonally adjusted), 4 industries had employment below the 2007 pre-recession levels. The highest gain industries were led by lower wage Food Services, Health Care (with a relatively higher mix of lower and higher wage occupations), lower wage Social Assistance, and higher wage Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. Of the lagging industries, three—Manufacturing, Mining & Logging, and Construction—are blue-collar middle-class wage industries, while the higher wage Finance & Insurance also remained in the minus column. Construction has overall improved but still remains 52,500 below the 2007 level, and 99,000 (10.2%) below the previous high in 2006.

In addition, higher wage Utilities and middle-class wage Real Estate, Rental, & Leasing edged closer to their 2007 levels, with a combined total of only 700 jobs in the plus column. In spite of trade jitters, blue-collar middle-class wage Transportation & Warehousing continued growing.

Job Gains by Wage Level

The following chart illustrates the trend for total wage and salary jobs by general wage level, according to the industry wage classification used previously in other Center analyses of this issue. As indicated, nearly half (48%) of net jobs growth since the recession has been in the lower wage industries. For the 12 months ending July 2018, lower wage industries accounted for over a quarter (28%) of new jobs, while middle class-blue collar jobs produced over a quarter (30%) as Construction levels remained higher compared to prior years.

Source: Analysis of California Employment Development Department data, not seasonally adjusted

Two-Tier Economy Persists—Central Valley Unemployment More than Twice as High as Bay Area

The level of unemployment rates (all data is not seasonally adjusted) continues to vary widely across the state, ranging from 2.9% in the Bay Area to more than twice as large at 7.4% in the Central Valley.

Not Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate (%) July 2018
California 4.4
Bay Area 2.9
Orange County 3.2
Sacramento 3.9
Central Sierra 4.1
San Diego/Imperial 4.2
Central Coast 4.2
Inland Empire 4.6
Los Angeles 4.9
Upstate California 5.3
Central Valley 7.4

By Legislative District:

Lowest 10 Unemployment Rates
CD18 (Eshoo-D) 2.2 SD13 (Hill-D) 2.1 AD16 (Baker-R) 2.1
CD12 (Pelosi-D) 2.3 SD11 (Wiener-D) 2.5 AD22 (Mullin-D) 2.1
CD52 (Peters-D) 2.6 SD39 (Atkins-D) 2.8 AD24 (Berman-D) 2.2
CD17 (Khanna-D) 2.6 SD36 (Bates-R) 2.8 AD28 (Low-D) 2.3
CD14 (Speier-D) 2.6 SD37 (Moorlach-R) 2.9 AD17 (Chiu-D) 2.4
CD45 (Walters-R) 2.7 SD10 (Wieckowski-D) 2.9 AD77 (Maienschein-R) 2.6
CD15 (Swalwell-D) 2.7 SD07 (Glazer-D) 2.9 AD25 (Chu-D) 2.6
CD49 (Issa-R) 2.8 SD15 (Beall-D) 2.9 AD73 (Brough-R) 2.6
CD48 (Rohrabacher-R) 3.0 SD02 (McGuire-D) 3.2 AD19 (Ting-D) 2.6
CD02 (Huffman-D) 3.0 SD34 (Nguyen-R) 3.4 AD78 (Gloria-D) 2.7
Highest 10 Unemployment Rates
CD29 (Cárdenas-D) 5.7 SD33 (Lara-D) 5.7 AD36 (Lackey-R) 6.4
CD43 (Waters-D) 5.8 SD24 (de León-D) 5.7 AD34 (Fong-R) 6.4
CD40 (Roybal-Allard-D) 5.8 SD08 (Berryhill-R) 5.8 AD59 (Jones-Sawyer-D) 6.6
CD10 (Denham-R) 6.1 SD30 (Mitchell-D) 5.9 AD13 (Eggman-D) 6.6
CD44 (Barragán-D) 7.0 SD05 (Galgiani-D) 5.9 AD64 (Gipson-D) 7.2
CD23 (McCarthy-R) 7.1 SD35 (Bradford-D) 6.2 AD21 (Gray-D) 8.2
CD22 (Nunes-R) 7.2 SD16 (Fuller-R) 6.9 AD31 (Arambula-D) 8.5
CD16 (Costa-D) 8.2 SD12 (Cannella-R) 6.9 AD26 (Mathis-R) 9.0
CD51 (Vargas-D) 8.9 SD40 (Hueso-D) 7.5 AD32 (Salas-D) 9.8
CD21 (Valadao-R) 9.3 SD14 (Vidak-R) 10.1 AD56 (Garcia-D) 10.2

Bay Area Provided 40.4% of Net Employment Growth Since Recession

Containing 19.4% of the state’s population, the Bay Area was responsible for 40.4% of the net growth in employment since the pre-recession peaks in 2007. Los Angeles Region, containing 29.2% of the population, accounted for the second largest share at 18.5%. Inland Empire is the only other region—at a growing margin—continuing to show employment gains above their population share.

Nine California MSAs in the 10 Worst Unemployment Rates Nationally

According to BLS data, of the 10 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) with the worst unemployment rates nationally, 9 are in California. Of the 20 worst, 10 are in California.

Metropolitan Area June 2018 Rate Rank
Rocky Mount, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.3 368
Vineland-Bridgeton, NJ Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.3 368
Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.4 371
Stockton-Lodi, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.4 371
Alexandria, LA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.5 373
Shreveport-Bossier City, LA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.5 373
Weirton-Steubenville, WV-OH Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.7 375
Hammond, LA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.8 376
Brownsville-Harlingen, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.9 377
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.2 378
Modesto, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.2 378
Yuba City, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.3 380
Madera, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.4 381
Fresno, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.6 382
Hanford-Corcoran, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.2 383
Merced, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.6 384
Bakersfield, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.7 385
Visalia-Porterville, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 9.6 386
El Centro, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 18.0 387
Yuma, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area 19.1 388

 

Note: All data sources, methodologies, and historical data series available at CenterforJobs.org/ca.