Reports

The latest new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association shows that as expected, the above trend ZEV sales in Q4 2017 were likely consumer responses to the potential sunset of related federal subsidies. The Q1 sales of true ZEVs (battery and fuel cell vehicles) were slightly below the quarterly levels from a year prior. Total PEV sales (plug-in hybrids and ZEVs) were up solely as a result of continued shifts from hybrid to plug-in hybrid sales, likely reflecting continued consumer acceptance issues related to range, higher purchase price, and reliability of the new technologies. Key findings from the data:

• Total California light vehicle sales in Q1 2018: 487,741. Down 3.8% from Q1 2017.
• Light truck market share was 53.7%, up from 49.8% in Q1 2017. The growing consumer preference for larger vehicles continues to be a contra-trend affecting the state’s ability to achieve its ZEV goals, as fewer models are available in this market component at price points that would achieve broader sales below the higher income segments.
• Consumer shifts to light trucks for the US as a whole was even more pronounced, accounting for fully two-thirds of new light vehicle sales in the first quarter.
• The trend towards light trucks came even in spite of higher fuel prices. The average California price for regular gas in Q1 2018 was $3.34 a gallon, compared to $2.89 the year prior.

Highlights for policy makers:

• Unemployment Rate Level at 4.3%; Total Employment Loses 8,800
• Labor Force Participation Rate Level Dips to 62.1%
• State Employment Growth Rankings—California Slips to #2
• Nonfarm Jobs Up 39,300
• Four Industries Below 2007 Pre-Recession Job Levels
• Job Gains by Wage Level
• Two-Tier Economy Persists—Central Valley Unemployment Three Times as High as Bay Area
• Bay Area Provided 39.5% of Net Employment Growth Since Recession
• Eight California MSAs in the 10 Worst Unemployment Rates Nationally

The concept of green jobs has increasingly been used as a tool to justify environmental policies more broadly, and the state’s expanding program of climate change regulation specifically.  In so doing, both proponents and the agencies now rely heavily on these—often unsubstantiated—job claims as purported indications that regulations will proceed cost-free or at worst under costs that are absorbable and balanced by a presumed increase in jobs.

Highlights for policy makers:
• Unemployment Rate Level at 4.3%; Total Employment Gains 2.400
• Labor Force Participation Rate Level Dips to 62.2%
• State Employment Growth Rankings
• Nonfarm Jobs Down 7,200
• 4 Industries below 2007 Pre-Recession Job Levels
• Job Gains by Wage Level
• Two-Tier Economy Persists—Central Valley Unemployment More Than Three Times as High as Bay Area
• Bay Area Provided 39% of Net Employment Growth Since Recession
• 8 California MSAs in the 10 Worst Unemployment Rates Nationally

Highlights for policy makers:
• Unemployment Rate Improves to 4.3%; Total Employment Gains 12,800
• Labor Force Participation Rate Level
• State Employment Growth Rankings
• Nonfarm Jobs Up 14,000
• Four Industries below 2007 Pre-Recession Job Levels
• Job Gains by Wage Level
• Two-Tier Economy Persists—Central Valley Unemployment Nearly Three Times as High as Bay Area
• Bay Area Provided 39% of Net Employment Growth Since Recession
• Seven California MSAs in the 10 Worst Unemployment Rates Nationally

The latest new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association shows that while Californians’ purchases of new cars and trucks remains above the 2 million mark, total sales have eased slightly from their 2016 peak.  Key findings from the data: 

• Total light vehicle sales in 2017: 1.051 million. Down 2.0% from 2016.
• 2017 Market share, cars:  48.7%. Down from 53.1% in 2016.
• 2017 Market share, light trucks: 51.3%. Up from 46.9% in 2016.
• California average price per gallon regular gasoline, 2017:Q4: $2.74. Down from $2.79 in 2016:Q4.

Highlights for policy makers:
• Unemployment Rate Level at 4.3%; Total Employment Gains 38,600
• Labor Force Participation Rate Eases Down
• State Employment Growth Rankings
• Nonfarm Jobs Up 52,700
• Six Industries below 2007 Pre-Recession Job Levels
• Job Gains by Wage Level
• Two-Tier Economy Persists—Central Valley Unemployment More than Twice as High as Bay Area
• Bay Area Provided 40% of Net Employment Growth Since Recession
• Seven California MSAs in the 10 Worst Unemployment Rates Nationally

Highlights for policy makers:
• Unemployment Rate Level at 4.6%; Total Employment Gains 101,900
• Labor Force Participation Rate Nears US Average
• State Employment Growth Rankings—California Returns to 1st Place
• Nonfarm Jobs Up 47,400
• Five Industries below 2007 Pre-Recession Job Levels
• Job Gains by Wage Level
• Two-Tier Economy Persists—Central Valley Unemployment More than Twice as High as Bay Area
• Bay Area Provided 39% of Net Employment Growth Since Recession
• Six California MSAs in the 10 Worst Unemployment Rates Nationally

The latest new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association shows Californians remain on track to exceed 2 million new light vehicle purchases in 2017, although sales are beginning to ease from comparable levels a year ago. Key findings from the data: 

• Light Trucks Continue to Exceed Half of New Vehicle Sales
• Total light vehicle sales in 2017:Q3: 518,080. Down 2.8% from 2016:Q3.
• 2017:Q3 Market share, cars:  48.7%.  Down from 52.8% in 2016:Q3.
• 2017:Q3 Market share, light trucks:  51.3%.  Up from 47.2% in 2016:Q3.
• California average price per gallon regular gasoline, 2017:Q3:  $3.05.  Up from $2.77 in 2016:Q3.

Highlights for policy makers:
• Unemployment Rate Level at 4.9%; Total Employment Gains 97,200
• Labor Force Participation Rate Matches Lowest Level from 1976
• State Employment Growth Rankings—California Rose to 2nd Place
• Nonfarm Jobs Up 31,700
• Four Industries below 2007 Pre-Recession Job Levels
• Job Gains by Wage Level
• Two-Tier Economy Persists—Central Valley Unemployment More than Twice as High as Bay Area
• Bay Area Provided 39% of Net Employment Growth Since Recession
• Six California MSAs in the 10 Worst Unemployment Rates Nationally

Highlights for policy makers:
• Unemployment Rate Level at 5.1%; Total Employment Gains 112,700
• Labor Force Participation Rate Matches Lowest Level from 1976
• State Employment Growth Rankings—California Rose to 3rd Place
• Nonfarm Jobs Up 52,200
• Six Industries below 2007 Pre-Recession Job Levels
• Job Gains by Wage Level
• Two-Tier Economy Persists—Central Valley Unemployment More than Twice as High as Bay Area
• Bay Area Provided 40% of Net Employment Growth Since Recession
• Eight California MSAs in the 10 Worst Unemployment Rates Nationally

Highlights for policy makers:
• Unemployment Rate Rises to 5.1%; Total Employment Drops 14,100
• Labor Force Participation Rate Remains at Lowest Level Since 1976
• State Employment Growth Rankings—California Drops to 7th Place
• Nonfarm Jobs Down 8,200
• Six Industries below 2007 Pre-Recession Job Levels
• Job Gains by Wage Level
• Two-Tier Economy Persists—Central Valley Unemployment More than Twice as High as Bay Area
• Bay Area Provided 44% of Net Employment Growth Since Recession
• Eight California MSAs in the 10 Worst Unemployment Rates Nationally

The latest second quarter new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association shows slowing growth in Californians’ purchases of new cars and trucks, although sales remain on track to exceed 2 million once again in 2017.

Highlights for policy makers:
• Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.8%; Total Employment Drops 24,900
• Labor Force Participation Rate Remains at Lowest Level Since 1976
• State Employment Growth Rankings—California Drops to 5th Place
• Nonfarm Jobs Up 82,600
• 6 Industries below 2007 Pre-Recession Job Levels
• Job Gains by Wage Level
• Two-Tier Economy Persists—Central Valley Unemployment More than Twice as High as Bay Area
• Bay Area Provided 44% of Net Employment Growth Since Recession
• 8 California MSAs in the 10 Worst Unemployment Rates Nationally

Highlights for policy makers:
• Unemployment Rate Continues Dropping to 4.7%; Total Employment Down 21,300
• Labor Force Participation Rate Remains at Lowest Level Since 1976
• State Employment Growth Rankings—California Remains in 3rd Place Behind Florida and Texas
• Nonfarm Jobs Down 1,400
• 6 Industries below 2007 Pre-Recession Job Levels
• Job Gains by Wage Level
• Two-Tier Economy Persists—Central Valley Unemployment More than Twice as High as Bay Area
• Bay Area Provided 44% of Net Employment Growth Since Recession
• 7 California MSAs in the 10 Worst Unemployment Rates Nationally
• Bay Area Paid 40% of Personal Income Tax in 2015 Tax Year