Special Report: Recession Watch
While the recent budget projections by both Department of Finance and Legislative Analysts’ Office do not anticipate a recession in 2023, other sources expect at least a mild downturn especially in response to continued Federal Reserve rate actions to combat inflation. The effect on employment and the unemployment rate, however, is uncertain. Jobs growth in the state continues to be held back more by labor shortages, as indicated in the continuing high level of unfilled job openings, and in other industries such as trade more by infrastructure and comparative cost factors. Employment losses within one part of the economy consequently are just as likely to be offset by hiring in others at least in the near term. Even within tech, the high numbers of unfilled job openings in the affected industries suggest layoffs are just as likely to be met with hiring by other companies and creation of new startups, although not necessarily within this state.