06/27/2019

ZEV Reports

State’s Progress on 5 Million Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV) by 2030: Q1 2019 Results

The latest new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association indicates that sales are now projected to be above 1.9 million units for the year.  Although slowing 4% from the prior year, this indicator reflects the level of overall consumer confidence and continuing strength of the recovery. New vehicle sales are also a critical indicator of state and local revenues, with Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers (NAICS 441) producing 13% of total taxable sales in the most recent data for the first quarter in 2018.

• Light truck market share in the quarter was down marginally to 56.1%, compared to 57.3% in Q4 2018 and 53.6% in Q1 2018.

• Consumer shifts to light trucks for the US outside California similarly showed only a marginal change, accounting for 69.9% of new light vehicle sales. The potential for California’s ZEV policies to be replicated beyond its borders remains low as the market segment targeted by most Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV) models—cars—continues to remain low as a result of consumer preferences.

• The average California price for regular gas in Q1 2019 was $3.34 a gallon, the same as the year prior.

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State’s Progress on 5 Million Zero Emission Vehicles by 2030: Q4 2018 Results

The latest new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association indicates that sales once again exceeded 2 million units for the year. Although slowing 2.2% from the prior year, this indicator reflects the level of overall consumer confidence and continuing strength of the recovery. New vehicle sales are also a critical indicator of state and local revenues, with Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers (NAICS 441) producing 13.1% of total sales and use tax in the most recent data for the first three quarters of 2017.

• Light truck market share in the quarter was 57.3%, up from 54.0% in Q4 2017, as consumers continue to show a growing preference for this type of vehicle.

• Consumer shifts to light trucks for the US outside California continued to be more pronounced, accounting for 70.6% of new light vehicle sales in this quarter and 68.8% for the year overall. The potential for California’s ZEV policies to be replicated beyond its borders remains low as the market segment targeted by most PEV models—cars—continues to contract as a result of consumer preferences.

• The trend towards light trucks continues in spite of higher fuel prices. The average California price for regular gas in Q4 2018 was $3.70 a gallon, 19.5% higher than the prior year’s $3.13.

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State’s Progress on 5 Million Zero Emission Vehicles by 2030: Q3 2018 Results

The latest new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association indicates that while still projected to be at the fourth highest level during the past 11 years, new vehicle sales in California are now expected to be just shy of 2 million for the year.  Q3 deliveries for battery electric plug-ins (BEVs) continued to be up primarily as a result of Tesla fulfilling reservations for Model 3 made in prior quarters beginning in 2017.  Total PEV sales (plug-in hybrids and BEVs) were up due to this factor and the continued shift from standard hybrid to PEV sales.  Key findings from the data:

• Light truck market share was 55.5%, up from 51.3% in Q2 2017, as consumers continue to show a preference for this type of vehicle.

• Consumer shifts to light trucks for the US outside California was even more pronounced, accounting for 71.3% of new light vehicle sales in this quarter. The potential for California’s ZEV policies to be replicated beyond its borders remains low as the market segment targeted by most PEV models—cars—continues to contract as a result of consumer preferences.  This trend is evident in GM’s recent announcement on the likely closing of three plants producing sedans (including the Volt PHEV) in order to move the company’s focus more to the light trucks/SUVs/crossovers consumers are buying as well as electric vehicles—which produce the credits needed to stay in compliance with both CAFE and ZEV regulations while enabling continued sales of the more profitable light truck models.  This action follows on similar but earlier moves by Ford and Fiat Chrysler.

• The trend towards light trucks continues in spite of higher fuel prices. The average California price for regular gas in Q3 2018 was $3.64 a gallon, 19.5% higher than the prior year’s $3.05.

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State’s Progress on 5 Million Zero Emission Vehicles by 2030: Q2 2018 Results

The latest new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association  indicates that new vehicle sales remain on track again to exceed 2 million for the year, even though Q2 sales were down slightly by 0.7% compared to the same quarter in 2017.  Q2 sales for battery electric plug-ins (BEVs) were up primarily as a result of Tesla finally fulfilling earlier reservations for Model 3. Total PEV sales (plug-in hybrids and BEVs) were up due to this result and the continued shift from standard hybrid to PEV sales. Key findings from the data: 

• Light truck market share was 55.5%, up from 50.4% in Q2 2017. The growing consumer preference for larger vehicles continues to be a contra-trend affecting the state’s ability to achieve its ZEV goals, as fewer models are available in this market component at price points that would achieve broader sales. The few models that are now offered in this class tend to be in the high end of the market.

• Consumer shifts to light trucks for the US outside California was even more pronounced, accounting for 69.6% of new light vehicle sales in this quarter. The potential for California’s ZEV policies to have much of an effect beyond its borders are increasingly limited as a consequence, as few models are being offered for the types of vehicles consumers prefer to buy.

• The trend towards light trucks came even in spite of higher fuel prices. The average California price for regular gas in Q2 2018 was $3.66 a gallon, 21.0% higher than the prior year’s $3.03.

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State’s Progress on 5 Million Zero Emission Vehicles by 2030: Q1 2018 Results

The latest new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association shows that as expected, the above trend ZEV sales in Q4 2017 were likely consumer responses to the potential sunset of related federal subsidies. The Q1 sales of true ZEVs (battery and fuel cell vehicles) were slightly below the quarterly levels from a year prior. Total PEV sales (plug-in hybrids and ZEVs) were up solely as a result of continued shifts from hybrid to plug-in hybrid sales, likely reflecting continued consumer acceptance issues related to range, higher purchase price, and reliability of the new technologies. Key findings from the data:

• Total California light vehicle sales in Q1 2018: 487,741. Down 3.8% from Q1 2017.

• Light truck market share was 53.7%, up from 49.8% in Q1 2017. The growing consumer preference for larger vehicles continues to be a contra-trend affecting the state’s ability to achieve its ZEV goals, as fewer models are available in this market component at price points that would achieve broader sales below the higher income segments.

• Consumer shifts to light trucks for the US as a whole was even more pronounced, accounting for fully two-thirds of new light vehicle sales in the first quarter.

• The trend towards light trucks came even in spite of higher fuel prices. The average California price for regular gas in Q1 2018 was $3.34 a gallon, compared to $2.89 the year prior.

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State’s Progress on 5 Million Zero Emission Vehicles by 2030

The latest new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association shows that while Californians’ purchases of new cars and trucks remains above the 2 million mark, total sales have eased slightly from their 2016 peak.  Key findings from the data: 

• Total light vehicle sales in 2017: 1.051 million. Down 2.0% from 2016.

• 2017 Market share, cars:  48.7%. Down from 53.1% in 2016.

• 2017 Market share, light trucks: 51.3%. Up from 46.9% in 2016.

• California average price per gallon regular gasoline, 2017:Q4: $2.74. Down from $2.79 in 2016:Q4.

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State’s Progress on 1.5 Million Zero Emission Vehicles by 2025 – November 2017

The latest new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association shows Californians remain on track to exceed 2 million new light vehicle purchases in 2017, although sales are beginning to ease from comparable levels a year ago. Key findings from the data: 

• Light Trucks Continue to Exceed Half of New Vehicle Sales

• Total light vehicle sales in 2017:Q3: 518,080. Down 2.8% from 2016:Q3.

• 2017:Q3 Market share, cars:  48.7%.  Down from 52.8% in 2016:Q3.

• 2017:Q3 Market share, light trucks:  51.3%.  Up from 47.2% in 2016:Q3.

• California average price per gallon regular gasoline, 2017:Q3:  $3.05.  Up from $2.77 in 2016:Q3.

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State’s Progress on 1.5 Million Zero Emission Vehicles by 2025 – August 2017

The latest second quarter new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association  shows slowing growth in Californians’ purchases of new cars and trucks, although sales remain on track to exceed 2 million once again in 2017. Key findings from the data:

• Total light vehicle sales in 2017:Q2 YTD:  1,026,882.  Down 2.0% from 2016 through Q2.

• 2017:Q2 YTD market share, cars:  49.9%.  Down from 54.9% in 2016:Q2.

• 2017:Q2 YTD market share, light trucks:  50.1%.  Up from 45.1% in 2016:Q2.

• California average price per gallon regular gasoline, 2017:Q2:  $3.02.  Up from $2.81 in 2016:Q2.

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State’s Progress on 1.5 Million Zero Emission Vehicles by 2025 – May 2017

The latest new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association  shows continued but slowing growth in Californians’ purchases of new cars and trucks.  Key findings from the data: 

• Total light vehicle sales in 2017:Q1:  506,745.  Up 0.7% from 2016:Q1.

• 2017:Q1 Market share, cars:  50.2%.  Down from 55.7% in 2016:Q1.

• 2017:Q1 Market share, light trucks:  49.8%.  Up from 44.3% in 2016:Q1.

• California average price per gallon regular gasoline, 2017:Q1:  $2.89.  Up from $2.61 in 2016:Q1.

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State’s Progress on 1.5 Million Zero Emission Vehicles by 2025

The latest new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association shows continued but slowing growth in California’s purchases of new cars and trucks.  Key findings from the data:

• Total light vehicle sales in 2016 Q2:  542,565.  Up 1.8% from 2015 Q2.

• Market share, cars:  54.8%.  Down from 59.3% in 2015 Q2.

• Market share, light trucks:  45.2%.  Up from 40.7% in 2015 Q2.

• California average price per gallon regular gasoline, 2016 Q2:  $2.81.  Down from $3.50 in 2015 Q2.

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State’s Progress on 1.5 Million Zero Emission Vehicles by 2025

The latest new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association shows continued but slowing growth in California’s purchases of new cars and trucks.  California consumers are now buying qualifying zero emission vehicles at an annual rate of 71,000, but will need to bump these purchases up to 175,000 a year in order to meet the state’s 2025 goal.  Key findings from the data are below.

• Total light vehicle sales in 2016 Q3:  531,514.  Essentially level with 2015 Q3 sales.

• Light vehicle market share, cars:  53.7%.  Down from 58.8% in 2015 Q3.

• Light vehicle market share, light trucks:  46.3%.  Up from 41.2% in 2015 Q3.

• California average price per gallon regular gasoline, 2016 Q3:  $2.77.  Down from $3.47 in 2015 Q3.

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State’s Progress on 1.5 Million Zero Emission Vehicles by 2025

The latest new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association  shows continued but slowing growth in California’s purchases of new cars and trucks.  Key findings from the data: 

• Total light vehicle sales in 2016 Q2:  542,565.  Up 1.8% from 2015 Q2.

• Market share, cars:  54.8%.  Down from 59.3% in 2015 Q2.

• Market share, light trucks:  45.2%.  Up from 40.7% in 2015 Q2.

• California average price per gallon regular gasoline, 2016 Q2:  $2.81.  Down from $3.50 in 2015 Q2.

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Progress Towards 1.5 ZEVs by 2025

As part of the AB 32 climate change program, Executive Order B-16-2012 administratively created a goal of 1.5 million zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) on California roads by 2025, with a sub-goal that their market share is expanding at that point.

• Sales of all light vehicles continue to increase, although at a decelerating rate. New vehicle registrations in 2016 Q1 were up 3.8% compared to 2015 Q1.

• As fuel prices have declined from the $4 a gallon level and higher in 2013 and 2014, consumers’ buying preferences have shifted back more to light trucks. Similar to the national pattern, new car registrations were down 2.0% in 2016 Q1, while light truck registrations were up 12.5%. Overall, market share for new cars declined from 63% at the beginning of 2013, to 56.6% in Q1 2016. Light trucks went from 37% to 43.4%.

• PEVs saw a small decline in market share, going to 2.8% in Q1 2016 vs. 3.0% in 2015 and the previous high of 3.2% in 2014.

• PEVs and Hybrids combined dropped to 7.6% in Q1 2016 compared to 8.8% in 2015 and the previous high of 9.5% in 2013. Rather than bringing in a wider base of customers, increased PEV sales in part are coming from a shift of the same customer base now willing to buy a PEV instead of a hybrid as additional models have become available.

• New PEV registrations increased only 572 from Q1 2015, to a total of 13,978.

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