The October numbers continued to show relative weakness in the state economy. Nonfarm jobs (seasonally adjusted) dropped by 5,500 in the preliminary results. The results for September were revised down by 2,200 to a gain of 12,700. Over the past three months, nonfarm jobs have grown by only 6,000, compared to 74,200 in the same period in 2023.
The Census Bureau’s recent state migration numbers from the American Community Survey, 1-year estimates again show more people moved (690,127) from California than came here (422,075) from other states in 2023. The domestic inflow was the lowest in the data series (since 2010), while the outflow was comparable to the level in 2018.
The net domestic outflow was counterbalanced for the first time in 4 years by an uptick in the level of foreign in-migration. In total, net migration for the state was positive due to this factor, but low at only 45,508. The data, however, is not able to track the number of persons moving from California to other nations. Note that in the chart, the ACS data for 2020 is not statistically significant for this indicator. The point shown for Net Total Migration is taken from the Department of Finance estimates.
The September numbers were positive but again at relatively modest levels. Nonfarm jobs rose by 14,700 in the preliminary results, below the overall average of 22,100 over the previous 12 months and only 5.8% of the total national gain of 254,000. Nonfarm jobs in August were revised from a modest gain of 6,800 to a loss of 1,200.
The unemployment rate remained level at 5.3%. Total employment rose only 2,100 over the month and only by 6,300 since September 2023. Increasing by 11,400 for the month and by 64,100 over the past 12 months, the number of unemployed again was above 1 million mark for the 9th month in a row, posting the worst levels since the pandemic months in 2021.
Highlights for policy makers:
1) 2nd Quarter Real GDP 27th Highest Among the States; 1st Quarter Revised Higher
2) 2nd Quarter Personal Income Growth 4th Highest Among the States; Driven by Medi-Cal Benefits
3) Slowing Job Growth Potential
4) CaliFormer Businesses
5) State UI Fund Debt Passes $20 Billion
The August numbers were positive but at relatively modest levels. Although revisions to the July numbers show stronger growth that month, nonfarm wage and salary jobs grew by only 6,800 in August, the 8th highest level among the states. Employment gains were 8,700.
The JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey) estimates continue to indicate California employers are cutting back on their hiring plans, reducing the likely scale of future jobs growth in the state.
The number of unfilled job openings at the end of June continued the current sharp decline trend, coming in at levels most recently seen during the height of the pandemic in 2020, and comparable to levels experienced in 2017 in the pre-pandemic period. Comparing the job opening rates (job openings as a share of job openings plus total employment), California has diverged strongly from the overall US level which has begun to level off at just below 5.0% as job expansion potential remains higher in the other states.
The July numbers were generally positive, but again at levels showing the state economy largely running in place. After posting the worst unemployment rate among the states 5 months in a row, California finally notched down to the second worst in July, tying with Illinois in that slot. The total number of unemployed, however, remained above the 1 million mark for the 7th month in a row. Employment while showing a marginal gain of 7,300 for the month still was 88,700 below the near term high posted in May 2023.
As discussed in our preliminary report, nonfarm jobs posted more positive results over the past two months, with June’s preliminary number coming in near the pre-pandemic monthly average from 2019. The labor force numbers in contrast, although showing the best results since last December, still reflected a continuing weakness in the state economy.
Both the nonfarm job and employment numbers showed positive gains in June. At 22,500, the nonfarm job gains were in line with the pre-pandemic average of 20,800 from 2019, while the stronger May gains were revised only marginally. These two months of positive news, however, were not enough to offset California’s weak ranking in net jobs growth among the states, which remained in 4th place below North Carolina.
While nonfarm jobs were more positive in May, the labor force numbers continued to post weak results. Although dropping 0.1 point to 5.2%, California’s unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) was again the highest among the states for the 4th month in a row
Both the nonfarm job and employment numbers showed positive gains in May but again at different scales. Nonfarm jobs rose by 43,700, while the previously reported April gains were revised down by 1,100 to 4,100. With the preliminary May results, nonfarm jobs have now averaged gains of 17,000 in the first 5 months of 2024, higher than the 6,400 average set in the same period last year and closer to the 20,800 average for the entire pre-pandemic year of 2019.
The 2024 expected monthly average of only 5,400 is largely consistent with April’s gain of 5,800. The Department of Finance’s projections expect employment growth to rise only slowly to reach a monthly average of 8,700 by 2027. At this pace, the state would still not recover to the pre-pandemic peak at any point in the projection period.
Both the nonfarm job and employment numbers showed positive gains in April, but at relatively modest levels. Nonfarm jobs rose by 5,200, and were not strong enough to even offset the 10,100 downward adjustment to the March gains.
With California now posting the highest unemployment rate in the nation, this report focuses specifically on unemployment data to provide crucial insights into the state of employment in California.
The March labor force data in general produced weak results for the state. Nonfarm jobs dipped by 3,400 over the month, while January’s strong preliminary numbers were revised down sharply from the initially reported 58,100 to 25,600, the lowest since last September and only 38% as high as the gain in January 2023.