01/16/2019

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November 2018 Jobs Report

Download November 2018 Jobs Report

Highlights for policy makers:

Unemployment Rate Level at 4.1%; Total Employment up 73,200

The Labor Force data for November 2018 (seasonally adjusted; California preliminary) is shown below, along with the change from the prior month:

Seasonally Adjusted California US
Nov 2018 Change from Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Change from Oct 2018
Unemployment Rate 4.1% 0.0 3.7% 0.0
Labor Force 19,517,200 0.4% 162,770,000 0.1%
Participation Rate 62.3% 0.2 62.9% 0.0
Employment 18,710,500 0.4% 156,795,000 0.1%
Unemployment 806,600 0.3% 5,975,000 -1.6%
Source: California Employment Development Department; US Bureau of Labor Statistics

 

The related not seasonally adjusted numbers (California preliminary), with the change from November 2017:

Not Seasonally Adjusted California US
Nov 2018 Change from Nov 2017 Nov 2018 Change from Nov 2017
Unemployment Rate 3.9% -0.3 3.5% -0.4
Labor Force 19,715,600 1.7% 162,665,000 1.4%
Participation Rate 62.9% 0.6 62.9% 0.2
Employment 18,938,100 2.0% 157,015,000 1.8%
Unemployment 777,500 -4.3% 5,650,000 -10.1%
Source: California Employment Development Department; US Bureau of Labor Statistics

 

California Employment Development Department’s (EDD) latest data shows on a seasonally adjusted basis, total employment rose 73,200 from October, while the number of unemployed rose 2,300. The labor force eased up by 75,600.

California’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate improved to 4.1%, the lowest level in the current data series that began in 1976. California tied with Connecticut and Wyoming for the 14th highest unemployment rate among the states. The unadjusted rate dipped from 4.2% in November 2017 to 3.9%.

Total US employment saw a seasonally adjusted gain of 233,000 from October, while the number of unemployed dropped by 100,000 and the total labor force grew by 133,000. The national unemployment rate stayed at 3.7%.

Labor Force Participation Rate Level Up to 62.3%

California’s participation rate (seasonally adjusted) ) in November rose to 62.3%, while the US rate remained at 62.9%.

California’s labor force continued to show some growth, up 126,600 over the year ending November 2018, or 0.7% growth. The US as a whole grew by 2.2 million – a 1.4% expansion. While workers elsewhere continue to return to the workforce, California’s continued low rate has implications for future growth in the state, including the ability to sustain jobs expansion as fewer workers are available and continued effects on state and local budgets for higher social program spending compared to other states.

Considered by age, the prime working age groups in California (age 25-54 and 55-64) remain somewhat below their previous highs since 2000, with youth employment remaining below levels from a year ago. These trends in particular have long-term implications for income distributions in the state, as most studies indicate that work skills developed through early employment are correlated with long-term earnings potential. In contrast to the younger groups, persons 65 and older show a higher labor force participation rate compared to the prior low at the beginning of this period.

Labor Force Participation Rate by Age (12-month moving average)

Prior Max November 2018
Total 67.2% 62.2%
16-19 46.8% 27.0%
20-24 76.4% 65.7%
25-54 82.1% 79.2%
55-64 66.3% 64.1%
Prior Min
65+ 12.1% 19.6%
Source: Current Population Survey microdata; EDD
Note: All entries from 12-month moving average

State Employment Growth Rankings—California 2nd Highest

Change in Employment, November 2017 – November 2018

Rank Number of Employed Percentage Change Population Adjusted
(employment growth per 1,000 civilian
noninstitutional population)
1 TX 290,500 MA 5.0% MA 31.8
2 CA 184,800 NV 3.5% NV 20.9
3 MA 178,200 NM 3.0% NM 16.1
4 FL 177,700 DE 2.6% DE 15.2
5 NY 122,900 AZ 2.5% CO 15.2
6 GA 100,300 IN 2.4% NH 15.0
7 AZ 80,800 CO 2.3% AZ 14.7
8 IN 75,500 NH 2.3% IN 14.5
9 NC 68,400 TX 2.2% TX 13.6
10 VA 67,800 AL 2.2% GA 12.5
11 CO 67,100 GA 2.1% AL 12.1
12 PA 63,000 ID 1.8% ID 11.3
13 WA 53,300 FL 1.8% FL 10.4
14 NV 49,500 OK 1.7% VA 10.2
15 AL 46,300 VA 1.6% OK 10.2
16 IL 42,600 RI 1.6% NE 9.9
17 MN 38,200 WA 1.5% RI 9.7
18 MO 35,000 NE 1.5% IA 9.5
19 MI 31,400 NC 1.4% WA 9.1
20 OK 30,500 IA 1.4% MN 8.7
21 NM 26,200 NY 1.3% NC 8.5
22 TN 23,900 MN 1.3% NY 7.7
23 IA 23,300 MO 1.2% SD 7.4
24 KY 22,000 KY 1.1% DC 7.3
25 NH 16,600 DC 1.1% MO 7.3
26 NJ 16,500 SD 1.1% KY 6.3
27 ID 14,900 PA 1.0% PA 6.1
28 NE 14,500 CA 1.0% CA 5.9
29 SC 14,100 KS 0.9% KS 5.6
30 CT 12,900 TN 0.8% TN 4.5
31 KS 12,500 CT 0.7% CT 4.5
32 DE 11,700 IL 0.7% IL 4.2
33 RI 8,400 MI 0.7% MI 3.9
34 MS 7,400 SC 0.6% SC 3.5
35 UT 7,200 MS 0.6% MS 3.2
36 MD 6,800 UT 0.5% UT 3.2
37 SD 4,900 NJ 0.4% NJ 2.3
38 WI 4,400 ME 0.4% ME 2.2
39 DC 4,200 VT 0.3% VT 1.7
40 ME 2,400 MD 0.2% MD 1.4
US 2,878,000 US 1.9% US 11.2
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted

 

Between November 2017 and November 2018, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data shows the total number of employed in California increased by 184,800 (seasonally adjusted), or 6.4% of the total net employment gains in this period for the US. Based on the total numbers, California rose to 2nd highest. place behind Texas. Measured by percentage change in employment over the year, California rose to 28th highest. Adjusted for working age population, California was 28thas well.

Nonfarm Jobs Up 30,700

EDD reported that between October and November 2018, seasonally adjusted nonfarm wage and salary jobs grew by 30,700. October’s gains were revised to 36,800 from the previously reported 36,400.

In the not seasonally adjusted nonfarm numbers that allow a more detailed look at industry shifts, hiring saw increases in all but 4 industries over the year. The change in total payroll jobs from November 2017 saw the largest increases in higher wage Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (54,300), lower wage Food Services (44,100), and lower wage Social Assistance (43,500). Declines were led by Wholesale Trade (-3,000), Retail Trade (-2,000), and Mining & Logging (-400).

Not Seasonally Adjusted Payroll Jobs Nov 2018 Oct 2018 Change Nov 2018 – Oct 2018 Change Nov 2018 – Nov 2017
Total Farm 418,300 463,600 -45,300 -6,600
Mining and Logging 22,200 22,700 -500 -400
Construction 864,200 868,500 -4,300 29,100
Manufacturing 1,316,000 1,321,600 -5,600 5,700
Wholesale Trade 723,900 723,500 400 -3,000
Retail Trade 1,770,500 1,699,600 70,900 -2,000
Utilities 58,500 58,300 200 600
Transportation & Warehousing 614,700 602,000 12,700 22,500
Information 548,100 551,500 -3,400 8,000
Finance & Insurance 550,400 549,200 1,200 3,200
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 288,300 288,900 -600 1,800
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1,295,200 1,288,300 6,900 54,300
Management of Companies & Enterprises 234,900 234,600 300 400
Administrative & Support & Waste Services 1,160,400 1,162,400 -2,000 36,900
Educational Services 385,400 381,600 3,800 4,100
Health Care 1,534,100 1,539,500 -5,400 13,500
Social Assistance 828,600 827,500 1,100 43,500
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 309,100 308,800 300 3,700
Accommodation 233,900 233,700 200 5,300
Food Services 1,475,700 1,467,800 7,900 44,100
Other Services 566,000 565,200 800 -200
Government 2,647,100 2,628,000 19,100 36,900
Total Nonfarm 17,427,200 17,323,200 104,000 308,000
Total Wage and Salary 17,845,500 17,786,800 58,700 301,400
Source: California Employment Development Department

 

At a 299,800 increase, California remained at 2nd highest measured by seasonally adjusted nonfarm jobs among the states from November 2017 to November 2018, behind Texas at 365,400. By percentage growth in jobs, California fell to 20th highest at 1.8%, just above the US average. By population adjusted jobs growth, California was again 22nd highest.

Change in Nonfarm Jobs (seasonally adjusted), November 2017 – November 2018

Rank Number of Jobs Employment Growth (%) Population Adjusted
(jobs growth per 1,000 civilian
noninstitutional population)
1 TX 365,400 NV 3.8% NV 21.9
2 CA 299,800 AZ 3.6% WY 20.1
3 FL 241,600 WY 3.2% UT 19.3
4 OH 116,400 TX 3.0% AZ 18.5
5 NY 114,400 WA 2.9% TX 17.1
6 AZ 101,600 UT 2.9% WA 16.9
7 NC 100,700 FL 2.8% CO 15.6
8 GA 99,000 CO 2.6% FL 14.2
9 WA 99,000 OR 2.5% SD 14.0
10 PA 78,700 NC 2.3% OR 13.9
11 VA 75,100 NH 2.2% NH 13.7
12 CO 69,100 GA 2.2% ND 12.8
13 NJ 60,900 SD 2.1% OH 12.6
14 TN 60,700 NM 2.1% NC 12.5
15 MA 60,500 OH 2.1% GA 12.3
16 IL 54,600 HI 2.0% HI 12.1
17 NV 51,900 TN 2.0% TN 11.4
18 MI 51,900 VA 1.9% VA 11.3
19 OR 46,700 ID 1.8% NM 10.9
20 WI 43,800 CA 1.8% MA 10.8
21 UT 43,700 ND 1.7% ID 10.0
22 MD 36,700 AL 1.7% CA 9.6
23 MN 35,200 OK 1.7% OK 9.4
24 AL 34,800 MA 1.7% AL 9.1
25 SC 32,800 MT 1.6% MT 8.9
US2,443,000 US1.7% US9.5
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Four Industries Still below 2007 Pre-Recession Job Levels

Source: California Employment Development Department, not seasonally adjusted; wages are running 4 quarter average from QCEW wage data

 

Comparing the number of jobs by industry in November 2018 (not seasonally adjusted), 4 industries had employment below the 2007 pre-recession levels. The highest gain industries were led by lower wage Food Services, Health Care (with a relatively higher mix of lower and higher wage occupations), lower wage Social Assistance, and higher wage Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. Of the lagging industries, three—Manufacturing, Mining & Logging, and Construction—are blue collar middle class wage industries. While slowing, Construction was still higher than in recent years but still remains 55,600 below the 2007 level, and 102,100 (10.0%) below the previous high in 2006.

Job Gains by Wage Level

The following chart illustrates the trend for total wage and salary jobs by general wage level, according to the industry wage classification used previously in other Center analyses of this issue. As indicated, nearly half (44%) of net jobs growth since the recession has been in the lower wage industries. For the 12 months ending November 2018, lower wage industries accounted for over a quarter (28%) of new jobs, while middle class-blue collar jobs produced over a quarter (33%) as Construction levels remained higher compared to recent years.

Source: Analysis of California Employment Development Department data, not seasonally adjusted

Two-Tier Economy Persists—Central Valley Unemployment More than Twice as High as Bay Area

The level of unemployment rates (all data is not seasonally adjusted) continues to vary widely across the state, ranging from 2.5% in the Bay Area to more than twice as large at 6.6% in the Central Valley.

Not Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate (%) November 2018
California 3.9
Bay Area 2.5
Orange County 2.8
Sacramento 3.5
San Diego/Imperial 3.8
Central Sierra 3.9
Inland Empire 3.9
Central Coast 4.1
Los Angeles 4.5
Upstate California 4.8
Central Valley 6.6

By Legislative District:

Lowest 10 Unemployment Rates
CD18 (Eshoo-D) 1.9 SD13 (Hill-D) 1.9 AD16 (Baker-Kahan-D) 1.8
CD12 (Pelosi-D) 2.1 SD11 (Wiener-D) 2.2 AD22 (Mullin-D) 1.8
CD17 (Khanna-D) 2.2 SD39 (Atkins-D) 2.5 AD24 (Berman-D) 1.9
CD52 (Peters-D) 2.3 SD36 (Bates-R) 2.5 AD28 (Low-D) 2.0
CD14 (Speier-D) 2.3 SD37 (Moorlach-R) 2.5 AD17 (Chiu-D) 2.2
CD15 (Swalwell-D) 2.4 SD15 (Beall-D) 2.5 AD25 (Chu-D) 2.2
CD45 (Walters-R) 2.4 SD10 (Wieckowski-D) 2.6 AD77 (Maienschein-D) 2.3
CD49 (Issa-R) 2.4 SD07 (Glazer-D) 2.6 AD19 (Ting-D) 2.3
CD48 (Rohrabacher-R) 2.6 SD02 (McGuire-D) 2.9 AD73 (Brough-R) 2.3
CD02 (Huffman-D) 2.7 SD34 (Umberg-D) 3.0 AD78 (Gloria-D) 2.4
Highest 10 Unemployment Rates
CD29 (Cárdenas-D) 5.2 SD33 (Lara-D) 5.2 AD36 (Lackey-R) 5.8
CD10 (Denham-R) 5.3 SD24 (Durazo-D) 5.2 AD23 (Patterson-R) 5.9
CD40 (Roybal-Allard-D) 5.3 SD05 (Galgiani-D) 5.4 AD13 (Eggman-D) 6.0
CD43 (Waters-D) 5.3 SD30 (Mitchell-D) 5.4 AD59 (Jones-Sawyer-D) 6.0
CD23 (McCarthy-R) 5.9 SD08 (Borgeas-R) 5.5 AD64 (Gipson-D) 6.6
CD44 (Barragán-D) 6.4 SD35 (Bradford-D) 5.7 AD21 (Gray-D) 6.9
CD22 (Nunes-R) 6.7 SD16 (Grove-R) 5.8 AD31 (Arambula-D) 8.2
CD16 (Costa-D) 7.4 SD12 (M. Caballero-D) 6.2 AD32 (Salas-D) 8.2
CD21 (Valadao-R) 8.1 SD40 (Hueso-D) 7.0 AD26 (Mathis-R) 8.4
CD51 (Vargas-D) 8.2 SD14 (Hurtado-D) 9.1 AD56 (Garcia-D) 9.5

Bay Area Provided 37.6% of Net Employment Growth Since Recession

Containing 19.6% of the state’s population, the Bay Area was responsible for 37.6% of the net growth in employment since the pre-recession peaks in 2007. Inland Empire continued to gain employment share, remaining in second place with 18.0%. Los Angeles Region, containing 29.1% of the population, accounted for the third largest share at 17.2%.

8 California MSAs in the 10 Worst Unemployment Rates Nationally

According to BLS data, of the 10 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) with the worst unemployment rates nationally, 8 are in California. Of the 20 worst, 10 are in California.

Metropolitan Area October 2018 Rate Rank
El Centro, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 19.2 388
Yuma, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area 17.7 387
Visalia-Porterville, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.3 386
Bakersfield, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.6 385
Hanford-Corcoran, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.2 384
Fresno, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.3 383
Merced, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.1 382
Madera, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.9 381
Yuba City, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.7 380
Ocean City, NJ Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.6 379
Danville, IL Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.5 374
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.5 374
Modesto, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.5 374
Weirton-Steubenville, WV-OH Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.5 374
Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.5 374
Anchorage, AK Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.3 370
Decatur, IL Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.3 370
Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.3 370
Sierravista-Douglas, AA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.3 370
Stockton-Lodi, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.2 364

 

Note: All data sources, methodologies, and historical data series available at CenterforJobs.org/ca.