06/27/2019

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October 2018 Jobs Report

Download October 2018 Jobs Report

Highlights for policy makers:

Unemployment Rate Level at 4.1%; Total Employment up 54,600

The Labor Force data for October 2018 (seasonally adjusted; California preliminary) is shown below, along with the change from the prior month:

Seasonally Adjusted California US
Oct 2018 Change from Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Change from Sep 2018
Unemployment Rate 4.1% 0.0 3.7% 0.0
Labor Force 19,441,000 0.3% 162,637,000 0.4%
Participation Rate 62.1% 0.2 62.9% 0.2
Employment 18,636,700 0.3% 156,562,000 0.4%
Unemployment 804,300 0.2% 6,075,000 1.9%
Source: California Employment Development Department; US Bureau of Labor Statistics

 

The related not seasonally adjusted numbers (California preliminary), with the change from October 2017:

Not Seasonally Adjusted California US
Oct 2018 Change from Oct 2017 Oct 2018 Change from Oct 2017
Unemployment Rate 4.0% -0.2 3.5% -0.4
Labor Force 19,627,400 1.3% 162,723,000 1.4%
Participation Rate 62.7% 0.3 62.9% 0.2
Employment 18,846,900 1.6% 156,952,000 1.8%
Unemployment 780,500 -4.4% 5,771,000 -7.5%
Source: California Employment Development Department; US Bureau of Labor Statistics

 

California Employment Development Department’s (EDD) latest data shows on a seasonally adjusted basis, total employment rose 54,600 from September, while the number of unemployed rose 1,600. The labor force grew by 56,200.

California’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate improved to 4.1%, the lowest level in the current data series that began in 1976. California tied with Alabama, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Wyoming for the 14thth highest unemployment rate among the states. The unadjusted rate dipped from 4.2% in October 2017 to 4.0%.

Total US employment saw a seasonally adjusted gain of 600,000 from September, while the number of unemployed grew by 110,000 and the total labor force by 711,000. The national unemployment rate improved to 3.7%.

Labor Force Participation Rate Level at 62.1%

California’s participation rate (seasonally adjusted) in October edged up to 62.1%, while the US rate rose to 62.9%.

California’s labor force finally showed slight growth, up 48,800 over the year ending October 2018, or 0.2% growth. The US as a whole grew by 2.3 million – a 1.4% expansion. While workers elsewhere continue to return to the workforce, California’s continued low rate has implications for future growth in the state, including the ability to sustain jobs expansion as fewer workers are available and continued effects on state and local budgets for higher social program spending compared to other states.

Considered by age, the prime working age groups in California (age 25-54 and 55-64) remain somewhat below their previous highs since 2000, with youth employment remaining below levels from a year ago. These trends in particular have long-term implications for income distributions in the state, as most studies indicate that work skills developed through early employment are correlated with long-term earnings potential. In contrast to the younger groups, persons 65 and older show a higher labor force participation rate compared to the prior low at the beginning of this period.

Labor Force Participation Rate by Age (12-month moving average)

Prior Max October 2018
Total 67.2% 62.2%
16-19 46.8% 27.1%
20-24 76.4% 65.5%
25-54 82.1% 80.3%
55-64 66.3% 63.9%
Prior Min
65+ 12.1% 19.5%
Source: Current Population Survey microdata; EDD
Note: All entries from 12-month moving average

State Employment Growth Rankings—California 4th Highest

Change in Employment, October 2017 – October 2018

Rank Number of Employed Percentage Change Population Adjusted
(employment growth per 1,000 civilian
noninstitutional population)
1 TX 259,400 MA 4.8% MA 30.3
2 MA 169,600 NV 3.1% NV 18.1
3 FL 157,100 NM 2.8% NM 14.9
4 CA110,400 DE 2.5% DE 14.6
5 GA 101,100 IN 2.3% CO 14.5
6 NY 88,700 CO 2.2% IN 14.4
7 IN 75,000 NH 2.1% NH 13.9
8 CO 64,200 GA 2.1% GA 12.6
9 VA 64,100 TX 2.0% TX 12.1
10 NC 63,800 AL 1.9% OK 10.9
11 AZ 59,300 AZ 1.9% AZ 10.8
12 PA 45,300 OK 1.9% ID 10.6
13 NV 42,900 ID 1.7% AL 10.5
14 AL 40,400 RI 1.6% RI 10.0
15 WA 39,800 FL 1.6% VA 9.7
16 MN 39,600 VA 1.5% FL 9.2
17 IL 35,700 NC 1.3% MN 9.0
18 MO 33,000 MN 1.3% IA 8.7
19 OK 32,700 IA 1.3% DC 8.4
20 MI 30,100 DC 1.3% NE 8.1
21 NM 24,200 NE 1.2% NC 7.9
22 IA 21,300 MO 1.1% MO 6.9
23 TN 19,700 WA 1.1% SD 6.8
24 KY 19,600 SD 1.0% WA 6.8
25 NH 15,300 KY 1.0% KY 5.6
26 ID 13,900 NY 1.0% NY 5.6
27 NE 11,900 MS 0.8% UT 4.8
28 DE 11,200 PA 0.7% KS 4.5
29 UT 10,900 UT 0.7% PA 4.4
30 WI 10,700 KS 0.7% MS 4.0
31 KS 9,900 MI 0.6% MI 3.8
32 SC 9,600 TN 0.6% TN 3.7
33 MS 9,200 CA 0.6% CA 3.6
34 RI 8,600 IL 0.6% IL 3.5
35 NJ 7,700 ME 0.5% ME 3.1
36 DC 4,800 VT 0.4% VT 2.9
37 SD 4,500 SC 0.4% SC 2.4
38 MD 3,500 HI 0.4% WI 2.3
39 ME 3,400 WI 0.3% HI 2.2
40 CT 3,300 CT 0.2% CT 1.1
US 2,071,000 US 1.3% US 8.1
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted

 

Between October 2017 and October 2018, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data shows the total number of employed in California increased by 110,400 (seasonally adjusted), or 5.3% of the total net employment gains in this period for the US. Based on the total numbers, California notched up to 4th place behind Texas, Massachusetts, and Florida. Measured by percentage change in employment over the year, California rose to 33rd highest. Adjusted for working age population, California was 33rd as well.

Nonfarm Jobs Up 36,400

EDD reported that between September and October 2018, seasonally adjusted nonfarm wage and salary jobs grew by 36,400. September’s gains were revised to 10,500 from the previously reported 13,200.

In the not seasonally adjusted nonfarm numbers that allow a more detailed look at industry shifts, hiring saw increases in all but 3 industries over the year. The change in total payroll jobs from October 2017 saw the largest increases in higher wage Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (52,900), middle class wage Administrative & Support & Waste Services (46,100), and Government (41,900). Declines were in Other Services (-4,400), Wholesale Trade (-2,900), and Retail Trade (-2,300).

Not Seasonally Adjusted Payroll Jobs Oct 2018 Sep 2018 Change Oct 2018 – Sep 2018 Change Oct 2018 – Oct 2017
Total Farm 463,600 476,700 -13,100 3,800
Mining and Logging 22,900 22,700 200 0
Construction 869,400 873,800 -4,400 29,700
Manufacturing 1,321,100 1,326,400 -5,300 3,900
Wholesale Trade 723,300 726,900 -3,600 -2,900
Retail Trade 1,289,300 1,688,300 9,900 -2,300
Utilities 58,300 58,200 100 400
Transportation & Warehousing 601,900 597,000 4,900 21,700
Information 548,300 541,200 7,100 8,300
Finance & Insurance 548,700 547,000 1,700 1,100
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 288,100 288,300 -200 3,300
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1,289,300 1,268,400 20,900 52,900
Management of Companies & Enterprises 234,700 233,900 800 1,500
Administrative & Support & Waste Services 1,168,400 1,154,800 13,600 46,100
Educational Services 381,300 363,900 17,400 5,300
Health Care 1,541,700 1,534,600 7,100 28,800
Social Assistance 823,900 820,900 3,000 33,800
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 305,800 311,300 -5,500 1,600
Accommodation 235,400 235,300 100 7,600
Food Services 1,467,600 1,470,300 -2,700 37,400
Other Services 565,400 563,200 2,200 -4,400
Government 2,630,500 2,561,500 69,000 41,900
Total Nonfarm 17,324,200 17,187,900 136,300 315,700
Total Wage and Salary 17,787,800 17,664,600 123,200 319,500
Source: California Employment Development Department

 

At a 308,700 increase, California remained at 2nd highest measured by seasonally adjusted nonfarm jobs among the states from October 2017 to October 2018, behind Texas at 384,400. By percentage growth in jobs, California fell to 17th highest at 1.8%, just above the US average. By population adjusted jobs growth, California dropped to 22nd highest.

Change in Nonfarm Jobs (seasonally adjusted), October 2017 – October 2018

Rank Number of Jobs Employment Growth (%) Population Adjusted
(jobs growth per 1,000 civilian
noninstitutional population)
1 TX 384,800 NV 3.4% UT 21.5
2 CA 308,700 UT 3.3% NV 19.4
3 FL 232,600 WA 3.3% WA 18.7
4 NY 122,800 TX 3.1% TX 18.0
5 OH 115,400 AZ 3.1% CO 16.3
6 WA 109,600 FL 2.7% AZ 15.8
7 NC 103,500 CO 2.7% OR 13.9
8 GA 93,600 NM 2.7% NH 13.9
9 PA 92,300 OR 2.5% NM 13.7
10 AZ 86,700 NC 2.3% FL 13.6
11 CO 72,000 NH 2.3% WY 13.4
12 VA 71,400 WY 2.1% NC 12.8
13 NJ 68,500 ID 2.1% OH 12.5
14 MA 64,400 GA 2.1% ID 11.7
15 MI 61,800 OH 2.1% GA 11.6
16 TN 59,300 TN 2.0% MA 11.5
17 IL 59,300 CA 1.8% TN 11.2
18 UT 48,600 VA 1.8% SD 11.0
19 OR 46,500 SC 1.8% NE 11.0
20 NV 45,800 MA 1.8% VA 10.8
21 MO 44,600 SD 1.7% HI 9.9
22 MD 38,500 HI 1.7% CA 9.9
23 SC 37,800 AL 1.7% NJ 9.6
24 MN 35,600 NJ 1.7% SC 9.5
25 AL 33,600 NE 1.6% MO 9.3
US2,516,000 US1.7% US9.9
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Four Industries Still below 2007 Pre-Recession Job Levels

Source: California Employment Development Department, not seasonally adjusted; wages are running 4 quarter average from QCEW wage data

 

Comparing the number of jobs by industry in October 2018 (not seasonally adjusted), 4 industries had employment below the 2007 pre-recession levels. The highest gain industries were led by lower wage Food Services, Health Care (with a relatively higher mix of lower and higher wage occupations), lower wage Social Assistance, and higher wage Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. Of the lagging industries, three—Manufacturing, Mining & Logging, and Construction—are blue collar middle class wage industries. While slowing, Construction was still higher than in recent years but still remains 50,400 below the 2007 level, and 96,400 (10.0%) below the previous high in 2006.

Job Gains by Wage Level

The following chart illustrates the trend for total wage and salary jobs by general wage level, according to the industry wage classification used previously in other Center analyses of this issue. As indicated, nearly half (44%) of net jobs growth since the recession has been in the lower wage industries. For the 12 months ending October 2018, lower wage industries accounted for under a quarter (24%) of new jobs, while middle class-blue collar jobs produced over a quarter (31%) as Construction levels remained higher compared to recent years.

Source: Analysis of California Employment Development Department data, not seasonally adjusted

Two-Tier Economy Persists—Central Valley Unemployment More than Twice as High as Bay Area

The level of unemployment rates (all data is not seasonally adjusted) continues to vary widely across the state, ranging from 2.6% in the Bay Area to more than twice as large at 6.3% in the Central Valley.

Not Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate (%) October 2018
California 4.0
Bay Area 2.6
Orange County 2.9
Sacramento 3.5
Central Coast 3.6
Central Sierra 3.9
San Diego/Imperial 4.0
Inland Empire 4.1
Upstate California 4.5
Los Angeles 4.6
Central Valley 6.3

By Legislative District:

Lowest 10 Unemployment Rates
CD18 (Eshoo-D) 1.9 SD13 (Hill-D) 2.0 AD16 (Baker-R) 1.9
CD12 (Pelosi-D) 2.1 SD11 (Wiener-D) 2.3 AD22 (Mullin-D) 1.9
CD17 (Khanna-D) 2.3 SD39 (Atkins-D) 2.5 AD24 (Berman-D) 2.0
CD52 (Peters-D) 2.4 SD36 (Bates-R) 2.5 AD28 (Low-D) 2.1
CD14 (Speier-D) 2.4 SD37 (Moorlach-R) 2.6 AD17 (Chiu-D) 2.3
CD15 (Swalwell-D) 2.5 SD10 (Wieckowski-D) 2.6 AD77 (Maienschein-R) 2.4
CD45 (Walters-R) 2.5 SD15 (Beall-D) 2.6 AD25 (Chu-D) 2.4
CD49 (Issa-R) 2.5 SD07 (Glazer-D) 2.7 AD19 (Ting-D) 2.4
CD48 (Rohrabacher-R) 2.7 SD02 (McGuire-D) 2.9 AD73 (Brough-R) 2.4
CD02 (Huffman-D) 2.7 SD34 (Nguyen-R) 3.1 AD78 (Gloria-D) 2.4
Highest 10 Unemployment Rates
CD34 (Gomez-D) 5.1 SD21 (Wilk-R) 5.1 AD13 (Eggman-D) 5.7
CD29 (Cárdenas-D) 5.3 SD18 (Hertzberg-D) 5.1 AD51 (Carrillo-D) 5.7
CD40 (Roybal-Allard-D) 5.3 SD33 (Lara-D) 5.3 AD36 (Lackey-R) 5.9
CD43 (Waters-D) 5.4 SD24 (de León-D) 5.3 AD59 (Jones-Sawyer-D) 6.1
CD23 (McCarthy-R) 5.8 SD30 (Mitchell-D) 5.5 AD21 (Gray-D) 6.5
CD22 (Nunes-R) 6.3 SD12 (Cannella-R) 5.7 AD64 (Gipson-D) 6.7
CD44 (Barragán-D) 6.5 SD16 (Fuller-R) 5.8 AD31 (Arambula-D) 7.5
CD16 (Costa-D) 6.8 SD35 (Bradford-D) 5.8 AD32 (Salas-D) 8.0
CD21 (Valadao-R) 7.8 SD40 (Hueso-D) 7.3 AD26 (Mathis-R) 8.1
CD51 (Vargas-D) 8.6 SD14 (Vidak-R) 8.7 AD56 (Garcia-D) 10.1

Bay Area Provided 37.9% of Net Employment Growth Since Recession

Containing 19.6% of the state’s population, the Bay Area was responsible for 37.9% of the net growth in employment since the pre-recession peaks in 2007. Inland Empire continued to gain employment share, remaining in second place with 17.9%. Los Angeles Region, containing 29.1% of the population, accounted for the third largest share at 17.6%.

Six California MSAs in the 10 Worst Unemployment Rates Nationally

According to BLS data, of the 10 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) with the worst unemployment rates nationally, 6 are in California. Of the 20 worst, 8 are in California.

Metropolitan Area September 2018 Rate Rank
El Centro, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 19.3 388
Yuma, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area 19.1 387
Visalia-Porterville, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.9 386
Bakersfield, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.6 385
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.2 384
Hanford-Corcoran, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.0 382
Vineland-Bridgeton, NJ Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.0 382
Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.9 379
Fresno, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.9 379
Merced, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.9 379
Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.8 377
Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.8 377
Brownsville-Harlingen, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.7 376
Alexandria, LA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.5 373
Hammond, LA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.5 373
Yuba City, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.5 373
Madera, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.4 371
Monroe, LA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.4 371
Shreveport-Bossier City, LA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.3 367
Weirton-Steubenville, WV-OH Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.3 367

 

Note: All data sources, methodologies, and historical data series available at CenterforJobs.org/ca.