Initial claims jumped again in California while easing in the rest of the US during the week of March 6. Combined with the higher California numbers and continued elevated claims in Ohio, the national numbers overall were largely stable.
Trade activity has substantially recovered from its earlier plunge at the beginning of the pandemic period. Incomes except for the lower wage workers predominately affected by the state’s closures have largely been maintained during this period both through the rapid adjustment of employers to teleworking and the transfer payments enacted by the federal and now state governments through the various COVID relief measures. The most recent personal income data from US Bureau of Economic Analysis indicates California personal income was essentially stable in the 3rd quarter of 2020, edging down marginally by 0.4% from the previous quarter (workplace earnings up 6.9% but transfer payments down 17.4%) but up 8.8% from the same period in 2019 (earnings up 2.5%; transfer payments up 54.6%). This income stability has maintained consumer demand for many products, especially imported products, although savings rates have also increased and the product mix within that demand has shifted in response to the current conditions.
Initial claims in both California and the US overall showed minor upward movement in the week of February 27. The national numbers again were heavily affected by elevated claims in Ohio.
While continuing to remain well above more typical levels, initial claims were down substantially in both the state and nation for the week of February 20. While the overall national numbers were lower likely due in part by severe weather conditions, they were also buoyed again by abnormally high claims processed in Ohio in both the regular and PUA programs.
The latest new vehicle data from California New Car Dealers Association shows total new light vehicle registrations in the third quarter were down 19.6% from the same period in the prior year, an improvement over the 48.9% drop in the second quarter but still lagging well behind the overall national decline of 8.4%. In addition to the associated jobs impacts, new vehicle sales are also a critical component of state and local revenues, with Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers (NAICS 441) producing 12% of total taxable sales in 2019.
Initial claims again rose substantially in California during the week of February 13. Overall claims rose as well in the US as a whole due to the California numbers and an upsurge in PUA claims in Ohio.
Below are the monthly updates from the most current January 2021 fuel price data (GasBuddy.com) and November 2020 electricity and natural gas price data (US Energy Information Administration). Energy prices continued to climb as a result of the state’s regulations and energy policies, further raising cost barriers to jobs recovery and further burdening the 2.3 […]
With the previous week’s numbers showing a somewhat higher upward revision than typical, total initial claims processed for the week of January 30 were once again up for California while easing slightly for the rest of the US. In both cases, total claims remain well above historic levels, but at a generally downward trend for California and largely stabilizing in the nation as a whole. While still high, these numbers suggest the economic situation is at least not getting worse, both from the number of layoffs and due to fewer initial claims in California as the state finally implements anti-fraud measures.
Below are highlights from the recently released trade data from the US Census Bureau and US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Highlights for policy makers:
COVID-19 and the State Economy
Employment: 1.497 Million Below Recovery
Labor Force Participation Rate Up at 60.6%
Employment Growth Ranking
Nonfarm Jobs: 1.460 Million Below Recovery
Jobs Change by Industry
Unemployment Rates by Region (not seasonally adjusted)
Unemployment Rates by Legislative District (not seasonally adjusted)
How Far Back Has the Economy in Each County Been Pushed?
Employment Share by Region
MSAs with the Worst Unemployment Rates: Los Angeles Rises to 15th Worst in Nation
Data Notes
With the previous week’s numbers showing a somewhat higher upward revision than typical, total initial claims processed for the week of January 30 were once again up for California while easing slightly for the rest of the US. In both cases, total claims remain well above historic levels, but at a generally downward trend for California and largely stabilizing in the nation as a whole. While still high, these numbers suggest the economic situation is at least not getting worse, both from the number of layoffs and due to fewer initial claims in California as the state finally implements anti-fraud measures.
Total initial claims processed for the week of January 23 were down substantially in the state while easing at a lower rate in the rest of the US.
Total initial claims processed for the week of January 9 were up substantially in the state while easing in the rest of the US.
In California, initial claims in the regular program were down sharply 32.1% over the prior week, while the reauthorized PUA claims jumped just under 230%. In the national totals, regular claims were down 13.6%, while PUA claims rose 48.7% as California accounted for over half of the new claims. Combined, total claims were up 8.6% in California and eased 0.9% in the US.
Following passage of the second federal COVID assistance bill and stay-at-home orders in California, initial claims for the week of January 9 were up sharply in both the state and the rest of the US.
Below are highlights from the recently released trade data from the US Census Bureau and US Bureau of Economic Analysis. California origin exports—including both products produced in the state and products aggregated by exporting firms—remained below the 2019 levels. Origin imports—both products used in the state and aggregated by state-based importers for subsequent distribution to […]