Below are the monthly updates from the most current January 2021 fuel price data (GasBuddy.com) and November 2020 electricity and natural gas price data (US Energy Information Administration). Energy prices continued to climb as a result of the state’s regulations and energy policies, further raising cost barriers to jobs recovery and further burdening the 2.3 […]
With the previous week’s numbers showing a somewhat higher upward revision than typical, total initial claims processed for the week of January 30 were once again up for California while easing slightly for the rest of the US. In both cases, total claims remain well above historic levels, but at a generally downward trend for California and largely stabilizing in the nation as a whole. While still high, these numbers suggest the economic situation is at least not getting worse, both from the number of layoffs and due to fewer initial claims in California as the state finally implements anti-fraud measures.
Below are highlights from the recently released trade data from the US Census Bureau and US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Highlights for policy makers:
COVID-19 and the State Economy
Employment: 1.497 Million Below Recovery
Labor Force Participation Rate Up at 60.6%
Employment Growth Ranking
Nonfarm Jobs: 1.460 Million Below Recovery
Jobs Change by Industry
Unemployment Rates by Region (not seasonally adjusted)
Unemployment Rates by Legislative District (not seasonally adjusted)
How Far Back Has the Economy in Each County Been Pushed?
Employment Share by Region
MSAs with the Worst Unemployment Rates: Los Angeles Rises to 15th Worst in Nation
Data Notes
With the previous week’s numbers showing a somewhat higher upward revision than typical, total initial claims processed for the week of January 30 were once again up for California while easing slightly for the rest of the US. In both cases, total claims remain well above historic levels, but at a generally downward trend for California and largely stabilizing in the nation as a whole. While still high, these numbers suggest the economic situation is at least not getting worse, both from the number of layoffs and due to fewer initial claims in California as the state finally implements anti-fraud measures.
Total initial claims processed for the week of January 23 were down substantially in the state while easing at a lower rate in the rest of the US.
Total initial claims processed for the week of January 9 were up substantially in the state while easing in the rest of the US.
In California, initial claims in the regular program were down sharply 32.1% over the prior week, while the reauthorized PUA claims jumped just under 230%. In the national totals, regular claims were down 13.6%, while PUA claims rose 48.7% as California accounted for over half of the new claims. Combined, total claims were up 8.6% in California and eased 0.9% in the US.
Following passage of the second federal COVID assistance bill and stay-at-home orders in California, initial claims for the week of January 9 were up sharply in both the state and the rest of the US.
Below are highlights from the recently released trade data from the US Census Bureau and US Bureau of Economic Analysis. California origin exports—including both products produced in the state and products aggregated by exporting firms—remained below the 2019 levels. Origin imports—both products used in the state and aggregated by state-based importers for subsequent distribution to […]
Below are the monthly updates from the most current December 2020 fuel price data (GasBuddy.com) and October 2020 electricity and natural gas price data (US Energy Information Agency). While the state’s regulatory surcharge on fuels eased slightly in December, prices for other energy components continued to climb higher. The resulting high costs on housing, transportation, […]
Initial claims for the week of January 2 were down both in California and the rest of the US.
In California, initial claims in the regular program were down 5.2% over the prior week, while initial PUA claims were off more sharply by 26.4%. In the national totals, regular claims were up 9.2%, but were offset by a much deeper drop in PUA claims by 48.0%. PUA claims, however, likely were affected by their uncertain extension until final action on the COVID-relief bill at the end of December. Combined, total claims were down 9.0% in California and 6.2% in the US.
Initial claims for the week of December 26 were largely unchanged in California, while dropping sharply in the rest of the US.
In California, initial claims in the regular program were up 5.6% over the prior week, with those gains largely offset by a 22.1% drop in initial PUA claims. In the national totals, regular claims were down 3.6% and PUA claims down 22.3%. Combined, total claims were down only 0.7% in California and 9.5% in the US.
Highlights for policy makers:
COVID-19 and the State Economy
Employment: 1.410 Million Below Recovery
Labor Force Participation Rate Drops to 60.4%
Employment Growth Ranking
Nonfarm Jobs: 1.411 Million Below Recovery
Jobs Change by Industry
Unemployment Rates by Region (not seasonally adjusted)
Unemployment Rates by Legislative District (not seasonally adjusted)
How Far Back Has the Economy in Each County Been Pushed?
Employment Share by Region
MSAs with the Worst Unemployment Rates: Los Angeles Remains 6th Worst in Nation
Initial claims for the week of December 19 declined from the prior week’s rise, but returned to the generally upward trend experienced since the first week of November.
In California, initial claims in the regular program were down 23.5% over the prior week, contributing heavily to the 7.7% drop for the US overall. PUA claims were largely unchanged with a dip of 2.4% in the state, but showed a stronger drop of 12.5% for the US. Combined, total claims were down 19.4% in California and 9.3% in the US.
Initial claims continued to climb but more sharply during the week of December 5, as all but 6 counties were placed by the state under the most restrictive Tier 1 status—now all but 4 smaller mountain counties in the most recent state orders for December 8. The recent wave of “stay at home” orders is now shutting many businesses especially small businesses who had been able to partially reopen during this most critical cash flow part of their revenue year. Given the timing on the surveys used to estimate the jobs and employment numbers, the effects of this current round will not likely become apparent until the release of the December numbers scheduled for later in January.