Reports

The latest new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association indicates that while still projected to be at the fourth highest level during the past 11 years, new vehicle sales in California are now expected to be just shy of 2 million for the year.  Q3 deliveries for battery electric plug-ins (BEVs) continued to be up primarily as a result of Tesla fulfilling reservations for Model 3 made in prior quarters beginning in 2017.  Total PEV sales (plug-in hybrids and BEVs) were up due to this factor and the continued shift from standard hybrid to PEV sales.  Key findings from the data:

• Light truck market share was 55.5%, up from 51.3% in Q2 2017, as consumers continue to show a preference for this type of vehicle.

• Consumer shifts to light trucks for the US outside California was even more pronounced, accounting for 71.3% of new light vehicle sales in this quarter. The potential for California’s ZEV policies to be replicated beyond its borders remains low as the market segment targeted by most PEV models—cars—continues to contract as a result of consumer preferences.  This trend is evident in GM’s recent announcement on the likely closing of three plants producing sedans (including the Volt PHEV) in order to move the company’s focus more to the light trucks/SUVs/crossovers consumers are buying as well as electric vehicles—which produce the credits needed to stay in compliance with both CAFE and ZEV regulations while enabling continued sales of the more profitable light truck models.  This action follows on similar but earlier moves by Ford and Fiat Chrysler.

• The trend towards light trucks continues in spite of higher fuel prices. The average California price for regular gas in Q3 2018 was $3.64 a gallon, 19.5% higher than the prior year’s $3.05.

Highlights for policy makers:

• Unemployment Rate Level at 4.1%; Total Employment Up 54,600
• Labor Force Participation Rate Level at 62.1%
• State Employment Growth Rankings—California 4th Highest
• Nonfarm Jobs Up 36,400
• Four Industries Still below 2007 Pre-Recession Job Levels
• Job Gains by Wage Level
• Two-Tier Economy Persists—Central Valley Unemployment More than Twice as High as Bay Area
• Bay Area Provided 37.9% of Net Employment Growth Since Recession
• Six California MSAs in the 10 Worst Unemployment Rates Nationally

Highlights for policy makers:

• Unemployment Rate Level at 4.1%; Total Employment Up 34,600
• Labor Force Participation Rate Level at 62.0%
• State Employment Growth Rankings—California Remains at 5th
• Nonfarm Jobs Up 13,200
• Four Industries Still below 2007 Pre-Recession Job Levels
• Job Gains by Wage Level
• Two-Tier Economy Persists—Central Valley Unemployment More than Twice as High as Bay Area
• Bay Area Provided 39.5% of Net Employment Growth Since Recession
• Six California MSAs in the 10 Worst Unemployment Rates Nationally

Highlights for policy makers:

• Unemployment Rate Level at 4.2%; Total Employment Up 7,300
• Labor Force Participation Rate Level at 61.9%
• State Employment Growth Rankings—California Remains at 5th
• Nonfarm Jobs Up 44,800
• Four Industries Still below 2007 Pre-Recession Job Levels
• Job Gains by Wage Level
• Two-Tier Economy Persists—Central Valley Unemployment More than Twice as High as Bay Area
• Bay Area Provided 40.4% of Net Employment Growth Since Recession
• Seven California MSAs in the 10 Worst Unemployment Rates Nationally

The latest new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association  indicates that new vehicle sales remain on track again to exceed 2 million for the year, even though Q2 sales were down slightly by 0.7% compared to the same quarter in 2017.  Q2 sales for battery electric plug-ins (BEVs) were up primarily as a result of Tesla finally fulfilling earlier reservations for Model 3. Total PEV sales (plug-in hybrids and BEVs) were up due to this result and the continued shift from standard hybrid to PEV sales. Key findings from the data: 

• Light truck market share was 55.5%, up from 50.4% in Q2 2017. The growing consumer preference for larger vehicles continues to be a contra-trend affecting the state’s ability to achieve its ZEV goals, as fewer models are available in this market component at price points that would achieve broader sales. The few models that are now offered in this class tend to be in the high end of the market.

• Consumer shifts to light trucks for the US outside California was even more pronounced, accounting for 69.6% of new light vehicle sales in this quarter. The potential for California’s ZEV policies to have much of an effect beyond its borders are increasingly limited as a consequence, as few models are being offered for the types of vehicles consumers prefer to buy.

• The trend towards light trucks came even in spite of higher fuel prices. The average California price for regular gas in Q2 2018 was $3.66 a gallon, 21.0% higher than the prior year’s $3.03.

Highlights for policy makers:

• Unemployment Rate Level at 4.2%; Total Employment Up 13,500
• Labor Force Participation Rate Level at 61.9%
• State Employment Growth Rankings—California Drops to 5th
• Nonfarm Jobs Up 46,700
• Four Industries Still below 2007 Pre-Recession Job Levels
• Job Gains by Wage Level
• Two-Tier Economy Persists—Central Valley Unemployment More than Twice as High as Bay Area
• Bay Area Provided 40.4% of Net Employment Growth Since Recession
• Nine California MSAs in the 10 Worst Unemployment Rates Nationally

Highlights for policy makers:

• Unemployment Rate Level at 4.2%; Total Employment Down 8,900
• Labor Force Participation Rate Level Continues Dip to 61.9%
• State Employment Growth Rankings—California Drops to 3rd
• Nonfarm Jobs Little Changed at 800
• Four Industries Still below 2007 Pre-Recession Job Levels
• Job Gains by Wage Level
• Two-Tier Economy Persists—Central Valley Unemployment More than Twice as High as Bay Area
• Bay Area Provided 39.6% of Net Employment Growth Since Recession
• Eight California MSAs in the 10 Worst Unemployment Rates Nationally

In their release of the 2016 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory, California Air Resources Board (CARB)[1] points to early attainment of the 2020 reduction goal as an unqualified demonstration of the success of the state’s current climate change policies.  A closer look at the numbers, however, indicates they are more the result of external factors.  Furthermore, […]

Highlights for policy makers:

• Unemployment Rate Level at 4.2%; Total Employment Loses 7,000
• Labor Force Participation Rate Level Dips to 62.0%
• State Employment Growth Rankings—California Still at #2
• Nonfarm Jobs Up 5,500
• 4 Industries below 2007 Pre-Recession Job Levels
• Job Gains by Wage Level
• Two-Tier Economy Persists—Central Valley Unemployment Nearly Three Times as High as Bay Area
• Bay Area Provided 39.5% of Net Employment Growth Since Recession
• 8 California MSAs in the 10 Worst Unemployment Rates Nationally

The latest new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association shows that as expected, the above trend ZEV sales in Q4 2017 were likely consumer responses to the potential sunset of related federal subsidies. The Q1 sales of true ZEVs (battery and fuel cell vehicles) were slightly below the quarterly levels from a year prior. Total PEV sales (plug-in hybrids and ZEVs) were up solely as a result of continued shifts from hybrid to plug-in hybrid sales, likely reflecting continued consumer acceptance issues related to range, higher purchase price, and reliability of the new technologies. Key findings from the data:

• Total California light vehicle sales in Q1 2018: 487,741. Down 3.8% from Q1 2017.

• Light truck market share was 53.7%, up from 49.8% in Q1 2017. The growing consumer preference for larger vehicles continues to be a contra-trend affecting the state’s ability to achieve its ZEV goals, as fewer models are available in this market component at price points that would achieve broader sales below the higher income segments.

• Consumer shifts to light trucks for the US as a whole was even more pronounced, accounting for fully two-thirds of new light vehicle sales in the first quarter.

• The trend towards light trucks came even in spite of higher fuel prices. The average California price for regular gas in Q1 2018 was $3.34 a gallon, compared to $2.89 the year prior.

Highlights for policy makers:

• Unemployment Rate Level at 4.3%; Total Employment Loses 8,800
• Labor Force Participation Rate Level Dips to 62.1%
• State Employment Growth Rankings—California Slips to #2
• Nonfarm Jobs Up 39,300
• Four Industries Below 2007 Pre-Recession Job Levels
• Job Gains by Wage Level
• Two-Tier Economy Persists—Central Valley Unemployment Three Times as High as Bay Area
• Bay Area Provided 39.5% of Net Employment Growth Since Recession
• Eight California MSAs in the 10 Worst Unemployment Rates Nationally

The concept of green jobs has increasingly been used as a tool to justify environmental policies more broadly, and the state’s expanding program of climate change regulation specifically.  In so doing, both proponents and the agencies now rely heavily on these—often unsubstantiated—job claims as purported indications that regulations will proceed cost-free or at worst under costs that are absorbable and balanced by a presumed increase in jobs.

Highlights for policy makers:
• Unemployment Rate Level at 4.3%; Total Employment Gains 2.400
• Labor Force Participation Rate Level Dips to 62.2%
• State Employment Growth Rankings
• Nonfarm Jobs Down 7,200
• 4 Industries below 2007 Pre-Recession Job Levels
• Job Gains by Wage Level
• Two-Tier Economy Persists—Central Valley Unemployment More Than Three Times as High as Bay Area
• Bay Area Provided 39% of Net Employment Growth Since Recession
• 8 California MSAs in the 10 Worst Unemployment Rates Nationally

Highlights for policy makers:
• Unemployment Rate Improves to 4.3%; Total Employment Gains 12,800
• Labor Force Participation Rate Level
• State Employment Growth Rankings
• Nonfarm Jobs Up 14,000
• Four Industries below 2007 Pre-Recession Job Levels
• Job Gains by Wage Level
• Two-Tier Economy Persists—Central Valley Unemployment Nearly Three Times as High as Bay Area
• Bay Area Provided 39% of Net Employment Growth Since Recession
• Seven California MSAs in the 10 Worst Unemployment Rates Nationally

The latest new vehicle sales data from California New Car Dealers Association shows that while Californians’ purchases of new cars and trucks remains above the 2 million mark, total sales have eased slightly from their 2016 peak.  Key findings from the data: 

• Total light vehicle sales in 2017: 1.051 million. Down 2.0% from 2016.

• 2017 Market share, cars:  48.7%. Down from 53.1% in 2016.

• 2017 Market share, light trucks: 51.3%. Up from 46.9% in 2016.

• California average price per gallon regular gasoline, 2017:Q4: $2.74. Down from $2.79 in 2016:Q4.