Reports

The July trade data showed strong results for California and its ports as shippers produced an early surge in activity in order to stay ahead of pending tariffs and potential labor actions. Origin exports rose 7.3% in nominal terms compared to a year ago. Total trade activity through the state ports accelerated by 22.7%, with the strongest increases coming from a steep rise in imports.
In nominal terms, total trade through the state’s ports in the first 5 months rose 7.9% over the year and 14.8% over pre-pandemic 2019, but still came in marginally lower than 2022.

The Center for Jobs and the Economy tracks closely California’s Trade sector and its importance in creating well-paying, resilient jobs for millions of residents. California’s Trade sector is a national economic powerhouse, with more than 1 in 51 jobs nationwide supported by the sector. To further quantify the impacts of this sector, the Center released a detailed economic study, “Special Report: Economic Importance of Trade & the Ports to Southern California,” which quantified the importance of this sector.

Following the passage of the increase to the minimum wage for specified fast food workers, much attention has been paid to the impacts the wage increase will have on jobs. While anecdotal data, including the closure of legacy fast-food chain stores in California, has made headlines, we are now able to use empirical data to track the law’s impacts on jobs and the economy. Despite what some are saying, the data are clear: newly passed fast food minimum wage laws are leading to job losses in California.

The JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey) estimates continue to indicate California employers are cutting back on their hiring plans, reducing the likely scale of future jobs growth in the state.

The number of unfilled job openings at the end of June continued the current sharp decline trend, coming in at levels most recently seen during the height of the pandemic in 2020, and comparable to levels experienced in 2017 in the pre-pandemic period. Comparing the job opening rates (job openings as a share of job openings plus total employment), California has diverged strongly from the overall US level which has begun to level off at just below 5.0% as job expansion potential remains higher in the other states.

The July numbers were generally positive, but again at levels showing the state economy largely running in place. After posting the worst unemployment rate among the states 5 months in a row, California finally notched down to the second worst in July, tying with Illinois in that slot. The total number of unemployed, however, remained above the 1 million mark for the 7th month in a row. Employment while showing a marginal gain of 7,300 for the month still was 88,700 below the near term high posted in May 2023.

The June trade data again showed positive news for California. Origin exports rose 1.6% in nominal terms compared to June 2023. Overall trade activity through the state ports rose 11.9% over this period as imports in particular surged 13.6% as shippers began holiday stocking early in response to rising risks of supply disruptions and looming rises in tariffs.

In nominal terms, total trade through the state’s ports in the first 5 months rose 7.9% over the year and 14.8% over pre-pandemic 2019, but still came in marginally lower than 2022.

Below are the monthly updates from the most current July 2024 fuel price data (GasBuddy.com) and May 2024 electricity and natural gas price data (US Energy Information Administration). To view additional data and analysis related to the California economy visit our website at www.centerforjobs.org/ca.

With the California Legislature returning for the final month of session this coming Monday, the Center for Jobs is releasing this special report, which contains metrics on the current jobs and economic outlook for the state. With recent news about the departure of Chevron and Tesla, and large layoffs by Intel, legacy companies are making major announcements that will affect both the current and future economy, especially the state budget.

This report first analyzes the impact of recently passed tax increases on businesses, including the direct, indirect, and induced job loss, which is estimated at up to 33,000 jobs. Following this analysis, the report addresses various recent claims about the state’s economic prowess

As discussed in our preliminary report, nonfarm jobs posted more positive results over the past two months, with June’s preliminary number coming in near the pre-pandemic monthly average from 2019. The labor force numbers in contrast, although showing the best results since last December, still reflected a continuing weakness in the state economy.

Both the nonfarm job and employment numbers showed positive gains in June. At 22,500, the nonfarm job gains were in line with the pre-pandemic average of 20,800 from 2019, while the stronger May gains were revised only marginally. These two months of positive news, however, were not enough to offset California’s weak ranking in net jobs growth among the states, which remained in 4th place below North Carolina.

Below are the monthly updates from the most current June 2024 fuel price data (GasBuddy.com) and April 2024 electricity and natural gas price data (US Energy Information Administration). To view additional data and analysis related to the California economy visit our website at www.centerforjobs.org/ca.

The May trade numbers in general showed positive news for California. Both origin exports and destination imports were up compared to May 2023. In nominal dollars, total trade through the state’s ports rose in this period, and the share of total US trade, while remaining well below previous highs, continued edging up.

In nominal terms, total trade through the state’s ports in the first 5 months rose 7.9% over the year and 14.8% over pre-pandemic 2019, but still came in marginally lower than 2022.

While nonfarm jobs were more positive in May, the labor force numbers continued to post weak results. Although dropping 0.1 point to 5.2%, California’s unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) was again the highest among the states for the 4th month in a row

The Center for Jobs and the Economy has released a special report that delves into the tax burden on personal income in California, particularly focusing on its impact on different family types. For additional information and data about the California economy visit www.centerforjobs.org/ca.

The Center for Jobs and the Economy has released a special report that delves into the tax burden on personal income in California, particularly focusing on its impact on different family types. For additional information and data about the California economy visit www.centerforjobs.org/ca.