The August numbers were positive but at relatively modest levels. Although revisions to the July numbers show stronger growth that month, nonfarm wage and salary jobs grew by only 6,800 in August, the 8th highest level among the states. Employment gains were 8,700.
The JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey) estimates continue to indicate California employers are cutting back on their hiring plans, reducing the likely scale of future jobs growth in the state.
The number of unfilled job openings at the end of June continued the current sharp decline trend, coming in at levels most recently seen during the height of the pandemic in 2020, and comparable to levels experienced in 2017 in the pre-pandemic period. Comparing the job opening rates (job openings as a share of job openings plus total employment), California has diverged strongly from the overall US level which has begun to level off at just below 5.0% as job expansion potential remains higher in the other states.
The July numbers were generally positive, but again at levels showing the state economy largely running in place. After posting the worst unemployment rate among the states 5 months in a row, California finally notched down to the second worst in July, tying with Illinois in that slot. The total number of unemployed, however, remained above the 1 million mark for the 7th month in a row. Employment while showing a marginal gain of 7,300 for the month still was 88,700 below the near term high posted in May 2023.
As discussed in our preliminary report, nonfarm jobs posted more positive results over the past two months, with June’s preliminary number coming in near the pre-pandemic monthly average from 2019. The labor force numbers in contrast, although showing the best results since last December, still reflected a continuing weakness in the state economy.
Both the nonfarm job and employment numbers showed positive gains in June. At 22,500, the nonfarm job gains were in line with the pre-pandemic average of 20,800 from 2019, while the stronger May gains were revised only marginally. These two months of positive news, however, were not enough to offset California’s weak ranking in net jobs growth among the states, which remained in 4th place below North Carolina.
While nonfarm jobs were more positive in May, the labor force numbers continued to post weak results. Although dropping 0.1 point to 5.2%, California’s unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) was again the highest among the states for the 4th month in a row
Both the nonfarm job and employment numbers showed positive gains in May but again at different scales. Nonfarm jobs rose by 43,700, while the previously reported April gains were revised down by 1,100 to 4,100. With the preliminary May results, nonfarm jobs have now averaged gains of 17,000 in the first 5 months of 2024, higher than the 6,400 average set in the same period last year and closer to the 20,800 average for the entire pre-pandemic year of 2019.
The 2024 expected monthly average of only 5,400 is largely consistent with April’s gain of 5,800. The Department of Finance’s projections expect employment growth to rise only slowly to reach a monthly average of 8,700 by 2027. At this pace, the state would still not recover to the pre-pandemic peak at any point in the projection period.
Both the nonfarm job and employment numbers showed positive gains in April, but at relatively modest levels. Nonfarm jobs rose by 5,200, and were not strong enough to even offset the 10,100 downward adjustment to the March gains.
With California now posting the highest unemployment rate in the nation, this report focuses specifically on unemployment data to provide crucial insights into the state of employment in California.
The March labor force data in general produced weak results for the state. Nonfarm jobs dipped by 3,400 over the month, while January’s strong preliminary numbers were revised down sharply from the initially reported 58,100 to 25,600, the lowest since last September and only 38% as high as the gain in January 2023.
With California now posting the highest unemployment rate in the nation, this report focuses specifically on unemployment data to provide crucial insights into the state of employment in California.
The March labor force data in general produced weak results for the state. Nonfarm jobs dipped by 3,400 over the month, while January’s strong preliminary numbers were revised down sharply from the initially reported 58,100 to 25,600, the lowest since last September and only 38% as high as the gain in January 2023.
As discussed in our preliminary report, nonfarm jobs in January posted a 58,100 gain in the preliminary estimate. While stronger than prior months, January only regained a portion of the ground lost due to the 231,800 downward adjustment in December coming from the annual revision process.
Highlights for policy makers:
Recovery 232,000 Jobs Weaker than Previously Reported
California Labor Force
Nonfarm Jobs by Region
Counties with Double-Digit Unemployment
Unemployment Rate By Legislative District