Job Reports

The July numbers were generally positive, but again at levels showing the state economy largely running in place. After posting the worst unemployment rate among the states 5 months in a row, California finally notched down to the second worst in July, tying with Illinois in that slot. The total number of unemployed, however, remained above the 1 million mark for the 7th month in a row. Employment while showing a marginal gain of 7,300 for the month still was 88,700 below the near term high posted in May 2023.

As discussed in our preliminary report, nonfarm jobs posted more positive results over the past two months, with June’s preliminary number coming in near the pre-pandemic monthly average from 2019. The labor force numbers in contrast, although showing the best results since last December, still reflected a continuing weakness in the state economy.

Both the nonfarm job and employment numbers showed positive gains in June. At 22,500, the nonfarm job gains were in line with the pre-pandemic average of 20,800 from 2019, while the stronger May gains were revised only marginally. These two months of positive news, however, were not enough to offset California’s weak ranking in net jobs growth among the states, which remained in 4th place below North Carolina.

While nonfarm jobs were more positive in May, the labor force numbers continued to post weak results. Although dropping 0.1 point to 5.2%, California’s unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) was again the highest among the states for the 4th month in a row

Both the nonfarm job and employment numbers showed positive gains in May but again at different scales. Nonfarm jobs rose by 43,700, while the previously reported April gains were revised down by 1,100 to 4,100. With the preliminary May results, nonfarm jobs have now averaged gains of 17,000 in the first 5 months of 2024, higher than the 6,400 average set in the same period last year and closer to the 20,800 average for the entire pre-pandemic year of 2019.

The 2024 expected monthly average of only 5,400 is largely consistent with April’s gain of 5,800. The Department of Finance’s projections expect employment growth to rise only slowly to reach a monthly average of 8,700 by 2027. At this pace, the state would still not recover to the pre-pandemic peak at any point in the projection period.

Both the nonfarm job and employment numbers showed positive gains in April, but at relatively modest levels. Nonfarm jobs rose by 5,200, and were not strong enough to even offset the 10,100 downward adjustment to the March gains.

With California now posting the highest unemployment rate in the nation, this report focuses specifically on unemployment data to provide crucial insights into the state of employment in California.

The March labor force data in general produced weak results for the state.  Nonfarm jobs dipped by 3,400 over the month, while January’s strong preliminary numbers were revised down sharply from the initially reported 58,100 to 25,600, the lowest since last September and only 38% as high as the gain in January 2023.

With California now posting the highest unemployment rate in the nation, this report focuses specifically on unemployment data to provide crucial insights into the state of employment in California.

The March labor force data in general produced weak results for the state.  Nonfarm jobs dipped by 3,400 over the month, while January’s strong preliminary numbers were revised down sharply from the initially reported 58,100 to 25,600, the lowest since last September and only 38% as high as the gain in January 2023.

As discussed in our preliminary report, nonfarm jobs in January posted a 58,100 gain in the preliminary estimate. While stronger than prior months, January only regained a portion of the ground lost due to the 231,800 downward adjustment in December coming from the annual revision process.

Highlights for policy makers:

Recovery 232,000 Jobs Weaker than Previously Reported
California Labor Force
Nonfarm Jobs by Region
Counties with Double-Digit Unemployment
Unemployment Rate By Legislative District

As discussed in our preliminary report, nonfarm jobs rose 23,400 in December, bringing the preliminary job gains for all of 2023 to 311,600 (seasonally adjusted) and coming in 26% better than the average monthly jobs gain of 20,500 in pre-pandemic 2019.

Highlights for policy makers:

Recovery Progress
Job Openings Down 25% Since December
Labor Force Still Below Recovery
Unemployment Claims at Nearly a Quarter of US Total
May Revise Pulls UI Fund Repayments
California State Trust Fund Solvency Lowest Among the States
CaliFormer Businesses
May Revise: Projections Show a Reduced Surplus; Not a Deficit