National Health Expenditure Projections, 2017–26: Despite Uncertainty, Fundamentals Primarily Drive Spending Growth

Under current law, national health spending is projected to grow 5.5 percent annually on average in 2017–26 and to represent 19.7 percent of the economy in 2026. Projected national health spending and enrollment growth over the next decade is largely driven by fundamental economic and demographic factors: changes in projected income growth, increases in prices for medical goods and services, and enrollment shifts from private health insurance to Medicare that are related to the aging of the population. The recent enactment of tax legislation that eliminated the individual mandate is expected to result in only a small reduction to insurance coverage trends.