But even among the nation’s largest metropolitan areas, the Los Angeles-Orange County region’s growth rate last year dropped precipitously — .19 percent — less than one third the average for the country’s 53 largest metro areas. By itself, Los Angeles’ rate was even lower, an insignificant .13 percent. Overall, L.A.-Orange County ranked lower than all but Chicago and Detroit among the top 20 major metropolitan areas.
One reason: growing net out-migration. The Los Angeles-Orange area — which already lost well over 350,000 migrants between 2010 and 2016 — ranked fourth from the bottom of the nation’s 53 largest metro area last year, ahead of only of New York, Chicago, and, surprisingly, San Jose. Despite a somewhat improved economy, L.A.’s area’s rate of outmigration in 2016-2017 was 40 percent over the annual average since 2010 average while the O.C. outmigration rate nearly tripled.
. . . It is commonplace among planners and regional boosters to suggest that to meet an expected surge of new residents we need to develop massive amounts of high-density housing. Yet the migration and growth numbers suggest quite the opposite. Actually, so far this decade more millennials moved to Irvine than to downtown L.A., where the vacancy rate is well over 10 percent. As with other groups, it’s the Inland Empire which shows the most marked millennial growth.
This suggests that economic development efforts should be focused more on creating jobs in outlying areas. Instead, the state and local have escalate their focus on density, trying to force growth most where people do not want or cannot afford to live. Although these policies are often justified as being green, this forces more people to commute longer distances to work, often at jobs that don’t pay enough to live closer, resulting in more auto-driven pollution.
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