The following tables provide an update to the September 2013 analysis of the time required for the State, regions, counties, and legislative districts at the current 12-month growth rate to attain the peak 2007 pre-recession employment levels. Tables 1 and 2 present the current results based on the most recent October 2013 civilian employment levels (not adjusted seasonally).
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The following analysis is the first in a series of Center papers analyzing the structural and regional differences in California’s economic and jobs growth based on the data series used to develop the Center’s Data Tool. Using total civilian employment as the measure, the analysis identifies which geographic areas of the state have met or exceeded the pre-recession employment peaks in 3rd Quarter 2007. The analysis is performed for the state, regions, counties, and legislative districts.
When considering just the absolute numbers, portions of the state now have employment levels above the 2007 pre-recession peak. The state as a whole exceeded the 3rd Quarter 2007 employment peak in one month so far this year, although the most recent July 2013 number is now 58,000 below the pre-recession peak employment level. For the areas that now exceed the 3rd Quarter 2007 employment level, the pattern of growth reflects the two-tier economic recovery underway, with coastal regions generally more likely than interior areas to have passed this economic milestone.
However, the state population has not stayed frozen in time, and has grown by more than an estimated 4% since the beginning of the recession. Adjusting peak employment for this population growth shows the state is still 2.9 years away at last year’s high employment growth rate from exceeding the prior peak levels of employment. A smaller number of areas do have employment numbers that now exceed the population adjusted 2007 peak, but again are predominantly coastal.