California’s trade surged in January 2025, with total trade flows rising by $13.5 billion (20.2%) compared to January 2024. Origin exports from the state’s businesses were up $1.1 billion (7.8%), and destination imports into the state were up $8.8 billion (25.7%).
In November, California average residential electricity rates (12-month moving average) again were more than double the average for the rest of the US. Electricity rates across all three primary end users as well as the cost of fuels remained the highest in the contiguous states and DC.
SB 222 would fundamentally alter California’s economic landscape by shifting climate policy into the courtroom, exposing businesses to retroactive liability for fossil fuel use dating back to 1965, leading to soaring litigation costs, higher consumer prices, and potential economic destabilization across key industries.
In November, California average residential electricity rates (12-month moving average) again were more than double the average for the rest of the US. Electricity rates across all three primary end users as well as the cost of fuels remained the highest in the contiguous states and DC.
Incorporating the December data, Total Trade through the state’s ports grew to their highest levels in 2024. In nominal terms, Total Trade rose 12.7% over the year and 23.0% compared to pre-pandemic 2019. In real terms, Total Trade was up 12.2% compared to 2023 and 8.1% compared to 2019.
In a somewhat different format, our Full Jobs Report for December provides an overview of California’s economic performance in 2024. The data is presented in two series: (1) outcomes in the last 12 months (or 4 quarters where applicable) for California and (2) longer term results beginning with the pre-pandemic year of 2019. Each chart indicates the time period covered by the indicator, with complete 2024 data available in some instances and partial year results or even only 2023 results available in particular for some of the broader economic measures such as state GDP. In cases where the December monthly data used, the 2024 results are preliminary.
The December preliminary data again showed mixed results from the two core surveys. Nonfarm jobs (seasonally adjusted) rose 15,000 in December, while the November gains were lowered by 1,500 to 9,600. Employment (seasonally adjusted), in contrast, dipped by 3,100 from November, and by 13,800 for the year. Unemployment rose by 6,000 over the month, marking the 12th month in a row when the number of unemployed in the state was above 1 million.
In October, California average natural gas rates (12-month moving average) continued to rise relative to the averages for the rest of the US. Electricity rates across all three primary end users as well as the cost of fuels remained the highest in the contiguous states.
The November trade data in general shows activities easing from the prior month as shippers shifted from holiday stocking, but remained well above trade levels a year ago in November 2023 as a focus remains on building inventories in anticipation of tariff increases in 2025. Total trade through the state’s ports remains on track to set new records this year in both nominal and real terms.
The November numbers once again showed mixed results. Combined with an upward revision to the October numbers, nonfarm jobs showed moderate growth with a gain of 20,200 over the two months. Employment in contrast showed a total loss of 24,200 in this period, and a combined loss of 101,100 since the near-term high in May 2023.
California’s surging electricity prices flipped the state’s relative position in September. Based on a 12-month moving average, California’s average monthly residential electricity bill was the 9th lowest among the contiguous states and DC in 2010 prior to the start of the state’s current climate change and energy policies. In September, California became the 8th highest.
In October, total trade through California’s ports reached its highest monthly level since at least 2003 in both nominal and real values as trade flows were diverted due to port disruptions in Canada and in the East and Gulf coast ports and as cargo owners sought to remain ahead of potential tariff increases in 2025. In nominal terms, total trade was up 33.1% compared to pre-pandemic October 2019, and up 17.6% compared to October 2023. Origin exports rose 5.4% compared to a year ago, while destination imports into the state were up 23.7%.
The state’s recent implementation of the $20 an hour minimum wage for fast food chains has produced the standard wave of claims over its effect on jobs, with proponents generally claiming that there has been no effect and even in some cases that the effect has produced an increase in jobs.
These claims to date, however, have been based on estimates using various data sources including the monthly job numbers published by Employment Development Department from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). The core caveat to date is that these are all estimates. The CES numbers reported for the industry containing the affected fast food establishments—Limited Service Restaurants—as with all the CES industries are based on monthly surveys and modeling results.
California’s unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) continued rising by 0.1 point to 5.4%, while the number of unemployed again was above 1 million for the 10th month in a row. The number of unemployed essentially matched the level previously seen in mid-2016 during the pre-pandemic period. California had the second highest rate among the states, behind Nevada at 5.7%. DC also came in at 5.7%.
The net domestic outflow was counterbalanced for the first time in 4 years by an uptick in the level of foreign in-migration. In total, net migration for the state was positive due to this factor, but low at only 45,508. The data, however, is not able to track the number of persons moving from California to other nations. Note that in the chart, the ACS data for 2020 is not statistically significant for this indicator. The point shown for Net Total Migration is taken from the Department of Finance estimates.
The October numbers continued to show relative weakness in the state economy. Nonfarm jobs (seasonally adjusted) dropped by 5,500 in the preliminary results. The results for September were revised down by 2,200 to a gain of 12,700. Over the past three months, nonfarm jobs have grown by only 6,000, compared to 74,200 in the same period in 2023.