In June 2014, the Legislature directed the LAO to prepare a report analyzing the costs, benefits, and trade-offs of various options for a state earned income tax credit (EITC) that would supplement the federal credit. This report discusses considerations for adopting a state EITC and provides three options for the Legislature’s consideration.
With regard to the 2014-15 budget, we project that if the Legislature adopts the Governor’s May Revision, the state would end 2014-15 with $3 billion in the state’s two budget reserves: the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA) established by Proposition 58 (2004) and the state’s traditional reserve, the Special Fund for Economic Uncertainties (SFEU). This total is roughly $850 million higher than the administration’s estimate for these reserves ($2.1 billion).
This report categorizes and provides information about $340 billion in California’s key retirement, infrastructure, and budgetary liabilities. In addition, this report provides a framework for the Legislature to consider in prioritizing repayment of these liabilities and makes recommendations on which liabilities to pay down first and how the state could address such costs in the future.
To put the CT in context, we note that these tax payments represent a small portion of the overall tax burden borne by California businesses. According to a study of 2011-12 business taxes by the Council on State Taxation—a trade association of multistate corporations—corporate income taxes made up only about 10 percent of the entire amount of state and local taxes paid by California businesses. The two largest taxes paid by businesses—property taxes and sales taxes—were each much larger than the total amount of state corporate income taxes.
. . . Census data shows that in 2012, 7.1 percent of California’s overall state tax revenues came from corporate income taxes. . . . This is an above-average share of state tax revenues derived from corporate income taxes. Specifically, the average share among the 50 states was 5.1 percent of tax revenues.
The decisions made in all of the areas discussed in this analysis could result in changes to the six states’ demographics and economy, both initially and over time. For example, differing policies could result in migration or different settlement patterns initially. Over the longer term, the states’ economic development and other policies could alter their respective economies. The exact nature of these changes, both initially and over time, is unknown.
We also find that the plan raises some important policy issues related to the financing and maintenance of state infrastructure and serves as a valuable starting point for legislative discussions. However, we note that the plan does not include some key information and suggest some changes that could make the plan more helpful to the Legislature. In addition, given the size of the state’s infrastructure investments and their long-term nature, we recommend that the Legislature take a more active role in considering infrastructure in a comprehensive way.
The proposal continues the Governor’s focus on paying down the “wall of debt,” a selection of budgetary liabilities the state incurred in addressing its past budget problems. The Governor’s emphasis on debt repayment is a prudent one. Overall, the Governor’s proposal would place California on an even stronger fiscal footing, continuing California’s budgetary progress.
Preliminary data from the Franchise Tax Board (FTB) indicate that December 2013 personal income tax (PIT) and corporation tax (CT) revenue collections were a combined $1.6 billion (20 percent) above monthly projections included in the state’s 2013-14 budget plan.
The 19th annual edition of the LAO’s Fiscal Outlook–a forecast of California’s state General Fund revenues and expenditures over the next six years–reflects continued improvement in the state’s finances. A restrained budget for 2013-14, combined with our updated forecast of increased state revenues, has produced a promising budget situation for 2014-15. Our forecast indicates that, absent any changes to current laws and policies, the state would end 2014-15 with a multibillion-dollar reserve. Continued caution is needed, however, given that these surpluses are dependent on a number of assumptions that may not come to pass. For example, as we discuss in this report, an economic downturn within the next few years could quickly result in a return to operating deficits. In this report, we outline a strategic approach for allocating potential surpluses that prepares for the next economic downturn while paying for past commitments, maintaining existing programs, and making new budgetary commitments incrementally to address other public priorities.