01/10/2025

News

The Numbers Crunch: A “Two-Tier Economy” Shadows California’s Future

We have a “two-tier economy,” says the California Business Roundtable, which represents many of the state’s largest employers. It points out that the Bay Area, with less than 20 percent of the state’s population, is accounting for 60 percent of new jobs since 2007.

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April State Income Tax Revenue Blows Past Jerry Brown’s Estimate

California income tax collections in April exceeded Brown administration estimates by more than $1.6 billion, according to data posted Friday by the state controller’s office, pushing income tax revenue for the year $8 billion higher than during a comparable period in 2013-14.

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2013 FTB Data: Personal Income Tax Base Varies Regionally

As measured by PIT levied per capita (per person), the Bay Area (specifically, the San Francisco/Oakland and San Jose MSAs) and Orange County are above the statewide average, while nearly every other part of the state is below. Outside of Orange County and those two Bay Area MSAs, only Napa County (grouped in the table above with two adjacent jurisdictions) has per capita PIT assessed ($1,856) at a level above the statewide average.

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Bay Area Generates Bumper Crop of State Income Taxes

The Legislature’s budget analyst, Mac Taylor, disaggregated recently released 2013 income tax numbers from the Franchise Tax Board by geographic region. His staff discovered that on a per capita basis, the roughly six million residents of the immediate Bay Area paid an average of $3,119 in state taxes, well over twice the state average of $1,460.

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U.S. Inflation Undershoots the Fed’s 2% Target for the 35th Straight Month

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose just 0.3% in March from a year earlier, the same increase as the previous month, the Commerce Department said Thursday.

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National Income and Product Accounts Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2015 (Advance Estimate)

Real gross domestic product — the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes — increased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2015, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.

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U.S. Economic Growth Nearly Stalls Out

The U.S. economy slowed to a crawl at the start of the year as businesses slashed investment, exports tumbled and consumers showed signs of caution, marking a return to the uneven growth that has been a hallmark of the nearly six-year economic expansion.

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Fed Officials Express Increasing Concern Over Weak Economic Data

Recent reports showed a slowdown in U.S. hiring in March, tepid growth in consumer spending at retail stores, a big drop in industrial output and softer-than-expected home building, reinforcing a view the economy downshifted in the first quarter and didn’t have great momentum moving into the second.

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Jobless Claims in U.S. Hold Below 300,000 for Sixth Week

Fewer than 300,000 American workers filed applications for unemployment benefits for the sixth consecutive week, pointing to labor-market strength even as hiring cooled last month.

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Beige Book–April 15, 2015

Economic activity in the Twelfth District continued to improve moderately during the reporting period of mid-February through the end of March. Overall price inflation was slight, while wage inflation was moderate. Retail sales and demand for business and consumer services increased moderately. Overall manufacturing activity improved modestly on net. The pace of output in the District’s agricultural sector was unchanged. Real estate activity advanced, especially in the commercial real estate sector. Lending activity increased moderately. . . Contacts in the health care industry reported that significant losses by insurers in the wake of health reform generated downward pressure on the price of health care services. Contacts expect significant rate increases for insurance on the health exchange in the fall, as insurance companies attempt to recoup previous losses.

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Beige Book: U.S. Economy Powers Through Headwinds

The U.S. economy continued to expand across most of the country in February and March, though a strong dollar, falling oil prices and harsh winter weather slowed activity in some sectors, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest survey of regional economic conditions.

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US Producer Prices Rise for First Time Since October

A gauge of U.S. business prices rose in March for the first time since October, a sign of stabilizing inflation in the economy.

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US Consumers Open Their Wallets, Cautiously

Sales at retailers and restaurants increased 0.9% last month to a seasonally adjusted $441.4 billion, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. That was the biggest monthly gain in a year, but it was still down from November, when retail sales reached their highest level since the end of the recession.

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US International Trade in Goods and Services, February 2015

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $35.4 billion in February, down $7.2 billion from $42.7 billion in January, revised. February exports were $186.2 billion, $3.0 billion less than January exports. February imports were $221.7 billion, $10.2 billion less than January imports.

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California Trade Report

California’s merchandise export trade was down nearly 9% in February over the same month last year, according to a Beacon Economics analysis of foreign trade data released this morning by the U.S. Commerce Department.

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