The findings of the March UCLA Anderson Forecast predict that total employment will grow by 1.8 percent in 2014, 2.2 percent in 2015 and 2.1 percent in 2016.
After a frustratingly slow recovery from the severe recession of 2007 to 2009, the economy will grow at a solid pace in 2014 and for the next few years, CBO projects. Real GDP (output adjusted to remove the effects of inflation) is expected to increase by roughly 3 percent between the fourth quarter of 2013 and the fourth quarter of 2014—the largest rise in nearly a decade. Similar annual growth rates are projected through 2017. Nevertheless, CBO estimates that the economy will continue to have considerable unused labor and capital resources (or “slack”) for the next few years. Although the unemployment rate is expected to decline, CBO projects that it will remain above 6.0 percent until late 2016. Moreover, the rate of participation in the labor force—which has been pushed down by the unusually large number of people who have decided not to look for work because of a lack of job opportunities—is projected to move only slowly back toward what it would be without the cyclical weakness in the economy.
Ecologists warn that economic growth is strangling the natural systems on which life depends, creating not just wealth, but filth on a planetary scale. Carbon pollution is changing the climate. Water shortages, deforestation, tens of millions of acres of land too polluted to plant, and other global environmental ills are increasingly viewed as strategic risks by governments and corporations around the world.
Among employers surveyed in the West, 18 percent plan to add staff, while 8 percent anticipate a decline in payrolls, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of +10% for Quarter 1 2014. According to seasonally adjusted survey results, employers in the West anticipate a relatively stable hiring pace compared to Quarter 4 2013 and one year ago at this time.
California could be a model for national economic growth after cutting public programs, raising taxes on the wealthy and continuing to invest in infrastructure, California Gov. Jerry Brown said Monday.
The overall economic outlook for the U.S. has improved sharply in recent weeks amid a string of surprisingly robust economic data: Businesses have stepped up hiring, new factory orders from abroad are at a two-year high and consumers have been flocking to car lots and restaurants.
The economy still faces challenges, the National Assn. for Business Economists said Monday. But most participants in the group’s quarterly survey expect there will be enough growth for the Federal Reserve to start reducing a key stimulus program in the first half of next year.
One in five Los Angeles area employers plan to hire more workers during the first quarter, the best showing in several years, according to a survey released today from Manpower Inc.
Construction industry employment has been one of the fastest growing job sectors in Los Angeles County over the last year, driven in large part by a resurgent housing market and continued demand for multi-family housing.
The labor market recovery in the East Bay has been relatively lackluster during recent months, although the slowdown is expected to be temporary. According to the California Employment Development Department, the East Bay’s August payroll number was 992,200, just about the average of the preceding months. On a year-over-year basis, nonfarm employment increased by 0.8%, or 7,800 jobs in total.
The South Bay continues to be one of the regions driving California’s overall employment growth. For the first eight months of 2013, total nonfarm employment in the South Bay was up 3% over the same period last year. The state, on the other hand, was up 1.7%.
Each year, growth in the Inland Empire labor market edges up, as the region continues its slow, steady march out of the Great Recession. As of August 2013, total nonfarm employment in the Inland Empire stood at 1.2 million, which is 9% below the region’s peak employment level set in July of 2007. Since August 2012, the region has added back 6,900 nonfarm payroll jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis, a 0.6% year-over-year increase. This is a lower rate of growth than in the state overall (1.5%), but it is important to remember that the Inland Empire was one of the hardest hit regions in California after the housing bubble burst.
The San Francisco Metropolitan Division (MD) continued its leading role in California’s employment recovery in the third quarter of 2013. In August, the region added over 21,000 jobs on a year-over-year basis. That 2.1% increase represented the fourth fastest growth rate in California behind San Jose, the Central Coast, and Orange County. The San Francisco MD is one of a handful of regions in the state to have exceeded their pre-recession peak employment levels.
San Diego County continues to be a key driver of employment growth in Southern California’s economy. Behind Orange County, it has been Southern California’s second fastest recovering job market. Since nonfarm employment hit bottom in February 2010, San Diego County has added back more than 66,000 jobs, a 5.5% increase. This is stronger than the growth experienced in Los Angeles (5.1%), the Inland Empire (3.7%), or the rest of Southern California (4.8%). In addition, San Diego’s unemployment rate dipped from nearly 11% in 2010 to 7.2% in August 2013. This is well below the statewide average of 8.9%, and is again only second to Orange County in Southern California.
The 19th annual edition of the LAO’s Fiscal Outlook–a forecast of California’s state General Fund revenues and expenditures over the next six years–reflects continued improvement in the state’s finances. A restrained budget for 2013-14, combined with our updated forecast of increased state revenues, has produced a promising budget situation for 2014-15. Our forecast indicates that, absent any changes to current laws and policies, the state would end 2014-15 with a multibillion-dollar reserve. Continued caution is needed, however, given that these surpluses are dependent on a number of assumptions that may not come to pass. For example, as we discuss in this report, an economic downturn within the next few years could quickly result in a return to operating deficits. In this report, we outline a strategic approach for allocating potential surpluses that prepares for the next economic downturn while paying for past commitments, maintaining existing programs, and making new budgetary commitments incrementally to address other public priorities.