09/21/2019

Economists See U.S. Recession Risk Rising

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal see a growing risk of recession in the U.S.

Though few could identify a specific trigger—such as the business investment crunch that drove the economy down in 2001 or the housing crisis that caused a recession in 2007—economists pointed to a number of worries, including trade tensions with China, rising interest rates and a sharp stock market selloff last year.

On average, economists surveyed in the past week as part of The Wall Street Journal’s monthly poll said there was a 25% chance of a recession in the next year, the highest level since October 2011. The probability was just 13% a year ago.

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