Don’t sound the “all clear” siren yet.
In February, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen nearly 15%, concerns grew that the U.S. economy was slipping into recession. Those fears have since subsided in financial markets, but most economists continue to see an elevated risk of the U.S. falling into a new recession within the next 12 months.
Forecasters in the latest Wall Street Journal survey of business, academic and financial economists estimated, on average, that the U.S. had a 20% chance of falling into recession in the next year. That was up slightly from the 19% in last month’s survey. While 1-in-5 odds are far from a slam dunk, they are double the odds from as recently as September.
“Decelerating employment growth, growing uncertainty and sputtering GDP growth does not portend well,” said Chad Moutray, chief economist at the National Association of Manufacturers.
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