Economic activity in the Twelfth District continued to improve moderately during the reporting period of mid-August through late September. Overall price and wage inflation remained modest. Retail sales grew slightly, and demand for business and consumer services increased moderately. Overall manufacturing activity picked up, while agricultural conditions were mixed. Real estate activity advanced, but growth in the residential sector varied across the District. Loan demand increased moderately.
Economic activity in the Twelfth District continued to improve moderately during the reporting period of mid-May through June. Overall price inflation remained quite modest, and wage pressures were well contained on net. Most contacts indicated that retail sales growth was unchanged from the previous Beige Book. Demand for business and consumer services ticked up. Manufacturing activity improved. Drought conditions contributed to reduced production of some fruits, vegetables, and livestock products. Activity in real estate markets advanced, although growth in the residential sector slowed somewhat. Loan demand increased overall.
Probably the best single indicator is the unemployment rate. At 6.7 percent, it is now slightly more than 1 percentage point above the 5.2 to 5.6 percent central tendency of the Committee’s projections for the longer-run normal unemployment rate. This shortfall remains significant, and in our baseline outlook, it will take more than two years to close.
Economic activity in the Twelfth District expanded at a moderate pace during the reporting period of late November through late December. Price inflation was subdued for most final goods and services, and upward wage pressures were modest overall. On balance, holiday retail sales increased relative to the year earlier. Demand for business and consumer services edged up. District manufacturing activity advanced. Output in agricultural and resource-related industries expanded. Demand for residential real estate climbed further, and commercial real estate activity improved. Reports from financial institutions indicated that loan demand increased.