01/12/2025

News

Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation

Several recent theories emphasize the negative effects of an aging population on economic growth, either because of the lower labor force participation and productivity of older workers or because aging will create an excess of savings over desired investment, leading to secular stagnation. We show that there is no such negative relationship in the data. If anything, countries experiencing more rapid aging have grown more in recent decades. We suggest that this counterintuitive finding might reflect the more rapid adoption of automation technologies in countries undergoing more pronounced demographic changes, and provide evidence and theoretical underpinnings for this argument.

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A Challenge to the ‘Secular Stagnation’ Theory

The paper, by Daron Acemoglu of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Pascual Restrepo of Boston University, argues aging populations have not had a negative effect on the growth of per-capita gross domestic product. In fact, some aging countries have seen faster growth. . . The economists find that countries where the population over age 50 is growing faster than the 20- to 49-year-old population have been more likely to acquire robots to do a worker’s job. Those investments make it easier for firms to replace departing workers even when there are fewer younger workers to take the retirees’ place.

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California unemployment falls despite tepid job growth

“California unemployment fell to 5.2 percent last month, although payrolls grew by an anemic 3,700 jobs, the state reported Friday. The Employment Development Department said the statewide unemployment rate dipped by a tenth of a percentage point in December. But the addition of just 3,700 payroll jobs across the state was remarkably weak and suggests the state’s economy may be slowing down.”

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OC Model: A Vision for Orange County’s Future

To date, there are two common errors when thinking about Orange County’s future. One maintains that Orange County, rejecting the dispersed model suggested by its origins, ought to mimic Los Angeles (which, in turn, thinks IT should be mimicking San Francisco or New York) and become more “city like” — code for high density housing, mass transit and a centralized downtown. Although this strategy works in older, downtown-centric “legacy cities”, it has proven far less successful elsewhere. This is most evident in neighboring Los Angeles, OC’s closest relative. The determined drive there to become “city-like” may have benefitted some, such as developers and beneficiaries of public contracts, but has demonstrably failed to improve economic conditions across the metropolis

Research & Studies
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How U.S. Immigrants’ Jobs Are Shifting

Jed Kolko, chief economist at job site Indeed, used Census Bureau data to dissect the occupational, educational and geographical background of immigrants in the U.S. He shows the most recent arrivals—those who came to the U.S. in the past five years—gravitating to jobs as medical scientists, software developers, physical scientists and economists. By contrast, earlier immigrants were more likely to land in blue-collar jobs at beauty salons, on construction sites or operating sewing machines.

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California ranked 42nd nationally in education

California trails much of the country when it comes to public education, according to Education Week’s new state rankings.

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“Gigs” are becoming lifelines for seniors

A study conducted by the JPMorgan Chase Institute found that roughly 4.2 percent of retirees have used the gig economy to earn money over the past three years, up 47-fold over the period. Moreover, the study, which used anonymous data from JP Morgan Chase customers to draw a wide sampling, found that seniors generated a larger segment of their income from the gig economy than any other group.

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Beige Book – January 18, 2017

Labor shortages in the technology, health-care, and financial industries boosted wages for skilled workers. Minimum wage legislation increased compensation for unskilled workers across the District. One contact in the media and entertainment industry reported that some companies were postponing filling vacant positions in order to offset rising costs from minimum wage increases. . . Contacts in the hospitality and restaurant industries reported increasing the price of goods and services to offset rising labor costs.

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California’s Future

This multi-topic publication highlights the state’s most pressing long-term policy challenges in several key areas.

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Feature film production in LA jumps to record level

Reflecting the popularity of California’s revised film incentive program, location shoots in the Los Angeles area jumped 6.2 percent last year, led by record feature film production, an industry tracker said Tuesday.

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Without better jobs and affordable homes, people will leave O.C. and economy will be in trouble, Chapman researchers say

Orange County’s future prosperity depends on its ability to attract well-paying jobs, but its efforts are woefully inadequate when compared with those of other regions. . . “We have high housing costs,” Kotkin said. “But we are not generating the jobs to support those costs. As long as we have this real estate-driven economy, we are going to be in trouble. Orange County was once the belle of the ball. That era is over.”

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The Rate of Hiring and Job-Quitting Appears Stuck in a Rut

Over the past year, the levels of quitting and hiring haven’t made any progress. Hiring plunged during the recession, but by the end of 2015 the rate had climbed to a post-recession high of 3.8%. For the past eight months, it has hovered below that rate.

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California as Alt-America

In sharp contrast to the 1960s California governed by Jerry Brown’s great father, Pat, upward mobility is not particularly promising for the state’s majority Latino next generation. Not only are housing prices out of reach for all but a few, but the state’s public education system ranks 40th in the nation, behind New York, Texas and South Carolina.  If California remains the technological leader, it is also becoming the harbinger of something else — a kind of feudal society divided by a rich elite and a larger poverty class, while the middle class either struggles or leaves town.

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Why Men Don’t Want the Jobs Done Mostly by Women

The jobs that have been disappearing, like machine operator, are predominantly those that men do. The occupations that are growing, like health aide, employ mostly women. . . But while more than a fifth of American men aren’t working, they aren’t running to these new service-sector jobs. Why? They require very different skills, and pay a lot less.

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Dan Walters: California’s economy has recovered, but overdue for a budget-busting recession

The technology-heavy San Francisco Bay Area has almost single-handedly lifted California’s economy and while other regions are better off than they were during the depths of the recession, their recoveries have been more sluggish.

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