From railroads to manufacturers to energy producers, businesses say they are facing a protracted slowdown in production, sales and employment that will spill into next year. Some of them say they are already experiencing a downturn.
California’s historic drought is forcing farmers in the dominant produce-growing state to fallow hundreds of thousands of acres and spend millions of dollars to access water. Yet U.S. grocery shoppers are barely feeling an impact. . . The lack of pain in the produce aisle highlights a tough reality of the produce business: It is difficult for growers and packers to boost prices because the sector is so fragmented, giving retailers and other wholesale buyers many options.
A growing chorus of prominent economists and analysts are arguing those dynamics could tip the world — and the United States along with it — into recession within the next two years. The fear is showing up in the recent wild swings in financial markets, rare outside of broader economic downturns. The pace of U.S. job growth has slowed substantially compared to last year. And though the economic expansion has never quite reached many workers, it has actually lasted longer than the post-war average.
According to new research, states with a high concentration of married couples experience faster economic growth, less child poverty and more economic mobility than states where fewer adults are married, even after controlling for a variety of economic and demographic factors. The study, from the conservative American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for Family Studies, also finds that the share of parents who are married in a state is a better predictor of that state’s economic health than the racial composition and educational attainment of the state’s residents.
. . . economists across the ideological spectrum have paid little attention to the links between household family structure and the macroeconomic outcomes of nations, states, and societies. This is a major oversight because, as this report shows, shifts in marriage and family structure are important factors in states’ economic performance, including their economic growth, economic mobility, child poverty, and median family income.
Economic activity in the District grew at a moderate pace during the reporting period of late August through early October. Overall price inflation appeared to firm slightly, and upward wage pressures increased further. Retail sales grew moderately, while demand for business and consumer services picked up further. Manufacturing output was largely unchanged overall. Agricultural activity edged up. Conditions in residential and commercial real estate markets expanded further. Lending activity ticked up.
Those exporters have suffered this year as China’s economy has cooled. In September, the Port of Long Beach, Calif., part of the country’s busiest ocean-shipping gateway, handled 197,076 outbound empty boxes. They accounted for nearly a third of all containers that moved through the port last month. September was the eighth straight month in which empty containers leaving Long Beach outnumbered those loaded with exports.
“Following a 3.0% increase in 2014, nonfarm jobs are expected to grow by 2.9% in 2015, and then slow slightly to 2.4% in 2016. The unemployment rate stood at 6.3% in July and is expected to decline to 5.8% in 2016. With further improvements anticipated for the labor market, personal income and total taxable sales should increase by 4.9% and 4.5% respectively this year, with similar or better gains in 2016.”
We examine the consequences of underreporting of transfer programs for prototypical analyses of low-income populations using the Current Population Survey (CPS), the source of official poverty and inequality statistics. We link administrative data for food stamps, TANF, General Assistance, and subsidized housing from New York State to the CPS at the individual level. Program receipt in the CPS is missed for over one-third of housing assistance recipients, 40 percent of food stamp recipients and 60 percent of TANF and General Assistance recipients. Dollars of benefits are also undercounted for reporting recipients, particularly for TANF, General Assistance and housing assistance. We find that the survey data sharply understate the income of poor households. Underreporting in the survey data also greatly understates the effects of anti-poverty programs and changes our understanding of program targeting. Using the combined data rather than survey data alone, the poverty reducing effect of all programs together is nearly doubled while the effect of housing assistance is tripled. We also re-examine the coverage of the safety net, specifically the share of people without work or program receipt. Using the administrative measures of program receipt rather than the survey ones often reduces the share of single mothers falling through the safety net by one-half or more.
“State personal income grew 0.9 percent on average in the second quarter of 2015, after growing 0.8 percent in the first quarter, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal income grew in every state except Oklahoma in the second quarter. In the first quarter, personal income grew in 34 states. Second-quarter personal income growth rates ranged from zero in Oklahoma to 1.5 percent in the state of Washington.”
California’s severe shortage of affordable housing has hit low-income renters particularly hard. Nearly 1.6 million low-income California renter households paid more than half of their income for housing in 2013, and this number has risen 28 percent since 2007. While the shortage is most severe on California’s coast, many families throughout California struggle to pay the rent (see Figure 1). A multifaceted approach with roles for local, state, and federal governments is needed to address the severe affordable housing shortage, but the federal Housing Choice Voucher program can play an outsized role.
“Four years of warnings of the consequences of government culpability – from cancelling water projects to releasing millions of acre-feet of precious stored reservoir water in utopian efforts to restore 19th-century salmon runs in the San Joaquin River or to rebound a bait fish population in the San Joaquin-Sacramento River Delta – are no longer written off as shrill.”
“California jobs will grow at a healthy rate this year, but at a slower pace over the next two years, according to a new forecast by UCLA’s Anderson School of Management.”
“The high level of income inequality in the United States is at the forefront of policy attention. This paper focuses on one potential policy response: an increase in the top personal income tax rate. We conduct a simulation analysis using the Tax Policy Center (TPC) microsimulation model to determine how much of a reduction in income inequality would be achieved from increasing the top individual tax rate to as much as 50 percent. We calculate the resulting change in income inequality assuming an explicit redistribution of all new revenue to households in the bottom 20 percent of the income distribution. The resulting effects on overall income inequality are exceedingly modest.”
“Personal income increased $52.5 billion, or 0.3 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $47.1 billion, or 0.4 percent, in August, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $54.9 billion, or 0.4 percent. In July, personal income increased $69.6 billion, or 0.5 percent, DPI increased $63.9 billion, or 0.5 percent, and PCE increased $45.7 billion, or 0.4 percent, based on revised estimates.”