News

U.S. employers are gaining confidence heading into year’s end, hiring at the quickest clip since before Washington’s political dysfunction rattled consumers and businesses this fall.

The U.S. economy expanded significantly faster than initially estimated in the third quarter as businesses fattened their inventories, a factor that is likely to weigh on growth in the year’s final quarter.

Employers added about 200,000 jobs in each of the past two months. Compared with the summer, when a string of disappointing reports led to fears of a cooling labor market, the recent rebound is encouraging, especially given that it happened despite October’s partial government shutdown. But the overall pace of job growth remains too weak to quickly recoup the losses of the deep 2008-2009 recession. Worse, there is little sign that growth is picking up from its good-but-not-great trend: The economy has added 2.3 million jobs over the past year, a pace that has changed little for the past two years.

On December 4, Governance Studies at Brookings hosted an event to highlight the importance of understanding the workforce skills gap in order to create effective public policies aimed at creating equitable economic growth in America.

The following tables provide an update to the August 2013 analysis of the time required for the State, regions, counties, and legislative districts at the current 12-month growth rate to attain the peak 2007 pre-recession employment levels. Tables 1 and 2 present the current results based on the most recent August 2013 civilian employment levels (not adjusted seasonally).

This analysis is the first in a series of Center papers analyzing the structural and regional differences in California’s economic and jobs growth based on the data series used to develop the Center’s Data Tool. Using total civilian employment as the measure, the analysis identifies which geographic areas of the state have met or exceeded the pre-recession employment peaks in 3rd Quarter 2007. The analysis is performed for the state, regions, counties, and legislative districts.

The 19th annual edition of the LAO’s Fiscal Outlook–a forecast of California’s state General Fund revenues and expenditures over the next six years–reflects continued improvement in the state’s finances. A restrained budget for 2013-14, combined with our updated forecast of increased state revenues, has produced a promising budget situation for 2014-15. Our forecast indicates that, absent any changes to current laws and policies, the state would end 2014-15 with a multibillion-dollar reserve. Continued caution is needed, however, given that these surpluses are dependent on a number of assumptions that may not come to pass. For example, as we discuss in this report, an economic downturn within the next few years could quickly result in a return to operating deficits. In this report, we outline a strategic approach for allocating potential surpluses that prepares for the next economic downturn while paying for past commitments, maintaining existing programs, and making new budgetary commitments incrementally to address other public priorities.

Construction industry employment has been one of the fastest growing job sectors in Los Angeles County over the last year, driven in large part by a resurgent housing market and continued demand for multi-family housing.

The labor market recovery in the East Bay has been relatively lackluster during recent months, although the slowdown is expected to be temporary. According to the California Employment Development Department, the East Bay’s August payroll number was 992,200, just about the average of the preceding months. On a year-over-year basis, nonfarm employment increased by 0.8%, or 7,800 jobs in total.

The South Bay continues to be one of the regions driving California’s overall employment growth. For the first eight months of 2013, total nonfarm employment in the South Bay was up 3% over the same period last year. The state, on the other hand, was up 1.7%.

Each year, growth in the Inland Empire labor market edges up, as the region continues its slow, steady march out of the Great Recession. As of August 2013, total nonfarm employment in the Inland Empire stood at 1.2 million, which is 9% below the region’s peak employment level set in July of 2007. Since August 2012, the region has added back 6,900 nonfarm payroll jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis, a 0.6% year-over-year increase. This is a lower rate of growth than in the state overall (1.5%), but it is important to remember that the Inland Empire was one of the hardest hit regions in California after the housing bubble burst.

The San Francisco Metropolitan Division (MD) continued its leading role in California’s employment recovery in the third quarter of 2013. In August, the region added over 21,000 jobs on a year-over-year basis. That 2.1% increase represented the fourth fastest growth rate in California behind San Jose, the Central Coast, and Orange County. The San Francisco MD is one of a handful of regions in the state to have exceeded their pre-recession peak employment levels.

San Diego County continues to be a key driver of employment growth in Southern California’s economy. Behind Orange County, it has been Southern California’s second fastest recovering job market. Since nonfarm employment hit bottom in February 2010, San Diego County has added back more than 66,000 jobs, a 5.5% increase. This is stronger than the growth experienced in Los Angeles (5.1%), the Inland Empire (3.7%), or the rest of Southern California (4.8%). In addition, San Diego’s unemployment rate dipped from nearly 11% in 2010 to 7.2% in August 2013. This is well below the statewide average of 8.9%, and is again only second to Orange County in Southern California.

California’s nonfarm payroll jobs increased by 39,800 in October for a total gain of 868,300 jobs since the recovery began in February 2010, according to data released today by the California Employment Development Department (EDD). California’s unemployment rate was 8.7 percent in September and October, down from 8.9 percent in August.

California’s unemployment rate has dropped to 8.7 percent over the past two months, while Sacramento unemployment has declined to levels not seen in five years, according to figures released today.

The Dow Jones industrial average has closed above 16,000 for the first time, marking yet another milestone for a stock rally that has surprised even some of the most bullish on Wall Street.